Bilbao has a good record in the previous meeting, so it will be more motivation for them to win this match. If they win, then they will narrow the points gap with Atletico Madrid, it is a good opportunity for them. It is quite interesting when looking at the records in the last 5 matches of both clubs, because they both have 3 draws and 2 wins, that is the same record. So I agree that this will be a tight match, and if a draw occurs, then it is something natural and not surprising at all.
This match reminds me of their previous meeting where Atletico Madrid managed to win the match with a narrow score at Bilbao's home. I think with the strength of Atletico Madrid's defense this season it will be very difficult for Bilbao to break through Atletico Madrid's goal this season. Moreover, in this match all Atletico Madrid players are ready to appear or they will come down with their full squad so the opportunity to secure 3 points at home is wide open.
Seeing the competition that is happening in the standings I think Atletico Madrid will try hard not to waste the opportunity to get 3 points. On the other hand, Alvarez is in his best form, maybe the best quality will be needed for tomorrow's match.