Atletico Madrid host Bilbao at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano tomorrow and it's really going to be a big match between 3rd and 4th. Should Atletico win the game, they will be atop Madrid and Barcelona temporarily but I don't think that Bilbao would easily grant them access. Both teams have been on a fine form of late so it's enough to say it's going to be a tough one but I think in terms of who might come out top, I give it to Atletico Madrid. They have met more stubborn sides and conquered them so it won't be hard for them to repeat the same thing when Bilbao pays them a visit to tomorrow.
If anything, the game might end in a draw if Diego Simeone's men don't take all three points because their h2h favored Bilbao as winners so definitely Atletico Madrid would want to change the narrative.
Both teams are on top of the La Liga standings, which are surely present an interesting match. Atletico are favorite for this time because they play at home and have better h2h. But I agree, Bilbao won't just give Atletico a win easily. Bilbao has good statistics where have never lost in the last 16 matches, while Atletico a bit worse than Bilbao, they have never lost in 13 last matches. Draw is possible happen if we calculate on their previous match, but because the main player Bilbao have injured (Oihan Sancet), I think it will be very beneficial for Atletico because they play with complete player, and have a onfire key player like Julian alvarez.
I would not rely on the absence of Oihan Sancet as a good leverage if I were Atletico Madrid because they've still got other good players in the persons of the Williams brothers, Alex Berenguer or Angel Herrera(who would be likely replacements for Oihan) and others so the threat isn't exactly reduced. One thing I know is that Bilbao will give as good as they get and I'm not expecting much goals in the game because both sides would employ the strategy of defend and attack. So it would take the better side of the two to get a maximum points.