Although your question seems to be very reasonable, I think that it is not well posed.

I've very recently bought Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness and, although I haven't started it yet, I think that the conclusion I will reach after reading it will be that although you try to make reasonable investments, chance always plays a major role.

It seems evident that going all-in long-term in hyped shitcoins is not a good strategy, but what I mean is that even investing in strong projects long-term projected, even in Bitcoin itself, could go wrong. So be careful, never go all-in or, although it sounds lick a cliché, invest what you can't afford to lose.