Great thread for all PM enthusiasts (like us
www.fairlay.com)!
First of all I wan't to point out that even if we run a centralized PM right now we believe in a decentralized future.
We see our core tasks in:
- Creating and promoting interesting and well defined events
- being a place to discuss events
- Providing a convenient user interface to market data and placing new predictions
- being a trusted source with a good reputation in resolving events
(In the decentralized version that would be a "stream")
All this task are required in a decentralized system as well.
At the moment as a centralized PM we also have the roll of a bank for storing funds.
Since we do not intend to run away with the coins this is only an additional risk for us and thus we would prefer other solutions.
Some ideas we had to at least kind of decentralize it:
1. We will publish a hash of every event description combined with the outcome "true" or "false" and sign the real outcome. Thus we can build up reputations and predictions can be placed completely independent.
2. With No. 1 bet amounts can be stored in a 2 out of 3 multi sign address. That would make it impossible for the central PM to run away with the money - just to choose the winning side. (of course this is only a little bit better, since the central PM could act as a bettor as well)
3. We though as well about finding a consensus by the user (to have less work by resolving events)
One solution would be that both sides put 10% more money in a multi-sign address. No the person that looses the bet can admit the loss and sign the transaction to the winner but he gets back the 10%. If none of both admits to be the looser we sign a transaction to the winner but take the 10% of the looser.
We think combining 1. and 2. and having multiple independent entities as described in 1. with a good track recored and betting on a consensus of these would be a good solution as well?
Or, where to you see advantages over this of Truthcoin?
Plz. allow me to answer some questions that came up in this thread (little bit off-topic):
On InTrade and predictious, you cannot create a new prediction market (although you can request one), and in fact I believe they are very slow and un-entrepeneurial in providing what people want.
Try fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/new/We promise a quick response!
I would love to see a good implementation of a prediction market in bitcoin. I think it could serve a use beyond speculation. It could be a new important media source, even an everyday app for making decisions.
That is our goal - and we are open very open for feedback.