Real Madrid showed that they are always stronger in the Champions League than in any other competition. I accept that the point gap is only a point difference, but Madrid still has a better advantage of qualifying to the the next round than Atletico. We might see a different game in the second leg, and Atletico performance might not be good enough to stretch the game to penalty shootout.
A difference of 3 points from Barcelona, which is the top of the standings with quite a lot of matches remaining and El Clasico which has not yet been played, of course this can be a situation that is actually still fifty-fifty where it can be meaningless or it can make conditions even worse.
Madrid's chances in La Liga are still quite big now even though Barcelona are much bigger but Madrid are still quite capable of making a turnaround just like they did at the halfway point of the season.
For the Champions League they are still 1 goal ahead on aggregate but Atletico playing home is certainly not an easy opponent. It's just that for the Champions League Madrid always appear superior so for this second leg I am still quite optimistic that they can get maximum results even their chances are now much greater of course even though Atletico play in front of their own supporters.