The chances are quite high as well. Because if you look at the forms of Inter and Napoli in the past month, you will see that they didn't fare well all that much, they had many games of loss and ties, which caused them to lose points a lot enough to make Juventus nearly catch up.
Gap of six points is nothing, if Napoli or Inter have a few more losses on this momentum then Juventus could very well catch them. It won't be right away, even if Juventus ends up being the champions in the end, we are not going to see them at the top this month for example, top teams won't lose points that easily. If there is ANY chance at all for Juventus to win the title, which is very slim as it is, then it will be at the very last few games for sure.
Let's not say six point gap is "nothing", while it is of course not that much, it's also not nothing neither. There are 11 games left, and we are talking about 3 teams above Juventus as well. So we are talking about all three teams having terrible games in this 11 games to let Juventus pass, that is a very unlikely situation.
Like I mentioned not impossible for this to happen but lets not act as if six points is nothing in this case neither. Even if they end up passing just one of them, passing all three of them would be a hard achievement that would be too difficult in normal cases. If some miracle happens and Juventus wins the title this year, then I would be shocked, and I would say even Atalanta would be shocking. I assume either Inter or Napoli will win.
I quite agree with you about the rational calculation because it will not be easy for Juventus to pass 3 teams easily. Napoli and Atalanta are still quite reasonable because they are within a point range that they can still achieve with the calculation. And Atalanta position could change if Juventus manages to beat them later in the 28th match, if it turns out to fail then Juventus is definitely not on the radar of the Scudetto title hunt.