As I type this post, 200-WMA is just above $44.8k, and in a bull market (which we seem to be in), BTC prices do not usually get within 25% of the 200-WMA which currently would be $56k, and right now, as I type this post,
BTC prices are 87.5% above the 200-WMA.
Sure, we could go into a bear market, but it seems unlikely that we would go into a bear market prior to mid-2025.. but sure, hey, anything can happen, and there can arguably be some loose correlations of BTC's price performance with liquidity and various other macro-happenings..
I also think we are not yet going into a bear market.
However, this cycle has a different anatomy compared to the previous ones. We reached ATH before the halving, which is something unique that never happened before.
Therefore, this cycle may be going faster than previous ones. Things are happening earlier than they should, so bear market may also come earlier.