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Topic
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Merits 8 from 3 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 16/03/2025, 18:14:54 UTC
⭐ Merited by El duderino_ (6) ,vapourminer (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)
panic threshold
whats a panic threshold?

Zero might cause panic, yet I am sure many of us would start panicking quite earlier than BTC spot prices getting to zero, such as at a BTC spot price that is more than 50% lower than the 200-WMA, depending on the reason for the BTC price to be going so low.. (right now, 50% lower than the 200-WMA would be about $22.5k).

One of the things about the BTC price going lower, is that if we had not sold earlier, then it hardly makes any sense to be selling upon some outrageous price dips, so many of us would keep buying BTC on the way down, yet at some point, we also would end up running out of money due to our having had kept buying.. and then maybe we would thereby resort to DCA buying, yet at some point, we might start to lose confidence and start to consider that we have no more money to keep buying..

Would the stop buying be panic?  I am not sure.   Probably panic then comes from converting into selling, rather than just HODLing through it.   I wonder, which ones of us panicked during late 2022 when at $15,479, we had temporarily gotten down to 36% below the 200-WMA?  Did any of us panic in late 2022 without disclosing?  I recall Philip gleefully selling BTC in the lower $20ks and gleefully buying and promoting the buying of T-bills (or whatever those scam dollar-based products were called) during that time, which could have had been a disaster for some folks, to the extent that there might have not been limits on the buys.

I heard others, besides Phillip, mentioning getting T-bills because they had a 5.5% interest rate or some other nonsense lure, and I still suggested that anyone with money should be buying bitcoin rather than that dollar-based crap that likely would not even keep up with the ongoing debasement of the dollar including that they had more than a 6-month lock-in period.

I did not sell even a sliver at 15.5K, but I also did not convert my $$ stash into bitcoin...just for the purposes if diversification.
I have a money market allocation that I only add to and not deplete (well, sometimes I sell the interest).
It paid 4-5.% in the last couple of years, but, mainly, it is some kind of insurance against catastrophic losses.
In other words, even if stocks and bitcoin both go to a small number and I lose the job, I can survive , assuming no hyperinflation.
The stash was "inspired" by the insane bear of 2001-2002 in tech stocks. I decided that i need and anchor against volatility.
So far, it worked out well against the mindrusting thoughts.