Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
bitmover
on 17/03/2025, 13:21:16 UTC

For the USA or generally western countries, since 2020, I have considered $2 million to be enough to have an entry-level fuck you status, so that means that it would generate $80k per year (with a 4% per year withdrawal rate), yet I consider $800k (17.84 BTC) to be enough to have in bitcoin if it is valued at the 200-WMA, since that would also generate $80k per year with a 10% withdrawal rate based on the dollar value (so long as the spot price is at least 25% or higher above the 200-WMA). 

Prior to 2020, I used to use $1 million as my idea of entry level fuck you status in the USA.. which would have been a $40k  income per year.  Yes, that is entry-level, so there will be variation in which some people are able to get by on less than that amount and others need much more... but yeah, $1million went to $2 million,  but yeah, in bitcoin we can use the 200-WMA and we can also use 10% rather than 4% as our withdrawal rate in order to get to the $40k per year income prior to 2020 or the $80k per year  income after 2020.

Regarding your 35%, sure that is pretty high as a start out amount, yet of course, you are not starting out, and you may well had gotten up to 35% based on BTC price appreciation and then your perhaps choosing to reallocate from time to time.  I don't believe in major reallocations, even though I am not opposed to diversify investing into other asset classes, such as properties, stocks, commodities, bonds and cash/cash equivalents... not referring to having any over reliance on shitcoins.

I had personally gotten up to 10% in 2014, and then I thought that I was overallocated when I got up to 13.5% in late 2015, and surely we know that BTC prices shot up after 2015, so my BTC allocation had gotten into the 80% based on price appreciation, and then it dropped down to 45%-ish during the 2018-ish lows, and then it largely went back up to bounce between 65% and supra 90%.. perhaps even now I am bouncing around 90% allocation to bitcoin, yet that allocation mostly has to do with bitcoin's appreciation and my decision to not reallocate. 


I agree with you mostly.

My target is also something like 2 million  usd, and I agree with that number even living in places such as Brazil.

About 90% of bitcoin allocation. I don't thinkt his is a problem if you already have something like 2mi usd in that 10%. If not, I would reallocate the fuck you status in a diversified portfolio and then add the rest in bitcoin, even if it is 80-90%.


Also, the decision to no reallocate is a decision, just like the decision to sell. Although it looks like  not deciding, not doinng anything is a decision