Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
Agbamoni
on 17/03/2025, 14:04:07 UTC
So, yeah, my idea is keep stacking BTC until you get enough BTC or more than enough for your target. which yeah, it is a moving target, I understand that.
Although I do have a really decent amount of btc, I prefer to think in usd terms when considering my portfolio and retirement.

I have about 35% of btc in my portfolio. I think it is high for someone thinking about retirement .

How much usd do you think it is good for retirement in USA?

I don't mind calculating in terms of dollars and/or fiat, yet as you know in recent times, I have been using the 200-WMA in order to valuate the extent to which a person may well need enough.

For the USA or generally western countries, since 2020, I have considered $2 million to be enough to have an entry-level fuck you status, so that means that it would generate $80k per year (with a 4% per year withdrawal rate), yet I consider $800k (17.84 BTC) to be enough to have in bitcoin if it is valued at the 200-WMA, since that would also generate $80k per year with a 10% withdrawal rate based on the dollar value (so long as the spot price is at least 25% or higher above the 200-WMA). 

Prior to 2020, I used to use $1 million as my idea of entry level fuck you status in the USA.. which would have been a $40k  income per year.  Yes, that is entry-level, so there will be variation in which some people are able to get by on less than that amount and others need much more... but yeah, $1million went to $2 million,  but yeah, in bitcoin we can use the 200-WMA and we can also use 10% rather than 4% as our withdrawal rate in order to get to the $40k per year income prior to 2020 or the $80k per year  income after 2020.

Regarding your 35%, sure that is pretty high as a start out amount, yet of course, you are not starting out, and you may well had gotten up to 35% based on BTC price appreciation and then your perhaps choosing to reallocate from time to time.  I don't believe in major reallocations, even though I am not opposed to diversify investing into other asset classes, such as properties, stocks, commodities, bonds and cash/cash equivalents... not referring to having any over reliance on shitcoins.

I had personally gotten up to 10% in 2014, and then I thought that I was overallocated when I got up to 13.5% in late 2015, and surely we know that BTC prices shot up after 2015, so my BTC allocation had gotten into the 80% based on price appreciation, and then it dropped down to 45%-ish during the 2018-ish lows, and then it largely went back up to bounce between 65% and supra 90%.. perhaps even now I am bouncing around 90% allocation to bitcoin, yet that allocation mostly has to do with bitcoin's appreciation and my decision to not reallocate. 

I see no reason to not let my winners ride, and so whatever management I have to do is selling on the way up and buying on the way down, yet I am not selling large amounts of BTC on the way up (perhaps less than 3% every time the BTC price doubles even though I have authorized myself to sell up to 10% every time the BTC price doubles but I have not been doing that), so my BTC holdings are largely continuing to compound on themselves.  I would consider that to be mostly a holding strategy that I have been doing since 2015.

Sure, with you it is likely different from my own, yet I had considered all of my investments outside of bitcoin to have had been enough that I could have had used those in order to live off of them, so over the past 11-ish years, those outside of bitcoin investments have largely stayed the same, and maybe on their own they had appreciated in value to nearly double in value, while my bitcoin investment has performed in the 83x territories, if I were to use $1k per bitcoin as my average cost per bitcoin, since I may well be able to assert that mistakes were made and that is why I use $1k per BTC as a proximation of my average costs per BTC rather than using some other lower cost per BTC amount.
Wow your Bitcoin journey since 2013 or earlier before then is very inspiring. As at 2015 i was actually still a high school finisher. Although i had interest in Bitcoin but couldn't afford to spare a dollar to get one then. In relating it with the experience you have had since 2014 and 2015 especially 2015 where you sold on the way up and buy all the way down. I want to believe that those times were time when Bitcoin was fluctuation a lot probably giving more opportunities to buy on dip. Literally you only did that to increase your Bitcoin holdings not that you want to sell for FIAT or anything else. Since then, i guess you have been holding onto your sats because it will be very wrong if you sell all the way up and buy all the way down at this time. Of course one will see it to be a trading pattern. Bitcoins volatility now and then is more of a bit difference.