I think Aston Villa and Dortmund have no chance of qualifying for the next round... About Inter vs Bayern and Madrid vs Arsenal it's really hard to guess the winners... Although Madrid have a lot of experience of playing against English teams in the UCL, I think they will have a better chance of winning... Although I don't rule out surprises in these matches...
We can't see this from a perspective that only tends to the probability of a bigger club because this is the Champions League and there are always many surprises that occur in every match that takes place.
Although for now we know that these two clubs have a fairly weak probability compared to their opponents, don't forget that Aston Villa and Dortmund can surprise.
Dortmund was an unexpected finalist before and they could make a breakthrough that will cause headaches again later, for Aston Villa they are also debutants for the Champions League but don't forget that Emery is a coach who is difficult to predict, even before Bayern lost in the quarter finals when Emery coached Villarreal so now even though in terms of strength PSG is superior, we can't just focus on them for victory because this match could have results that are not in accordance with expectations.