She needs to lose the game
Not really.
It was purposely worded that 'she has to progress to the 4th round' so you think she has 3 games to play.
She doesn't have 3, but does have 2 - Cirstea in R64 and then Vekić/Minnen/Masarova in R32.
If she loses, it's a 'No', but it's also a 'No' if she wins both matches with a 2-1 score.
She's 1.50 favorite against Cirstea, she won against her easily in Miami last year and that's the only time they played against each other in the last 5 years.