Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
JayJuanGee
on 19/03/2025, 16:34:18 UTC
Where it's really wrong waiting for the dip before buying is when you have no Bitcoin or less stash of Bitcoin in your possession, at that instant, you don't wait, you just buy it regardless of it current price in other to increase your stash as much as possible, then if their is a dip in the market, you might decide to buy aggressively only if you have the financial leverage to do so, but waiting as a low or no coiner is actually a terrible mistake in my own opinion.
I disagree with you here. You will be making a mistake if you wait to by the dip when you don't have any strategy you are using to accumulate. Buying on dips should be a secondary/temporal method of accumulating Bitcoin. The primary method should be one that you are using to accumulate Bitcoin on a steady till you reach your accumulation goal.
If you look at my full write up very well, I said that it's very important you buy and accumulate Bitcoin regardless of it price especially when you have less or no stash at all, but if you have gotten close to the peak of your accumulation journey, you might decide to wait for a dip before buying because you have the leverage to do so, and you know why? Because time is on your side unlike someone that is a low or no coiner.
But take note that it's not compulsory at all, it all depends on the person if he wants to leverage such a situation to his own benefits, because I know that not everyone that is closed to the end of their accumulation will act in such a manner.
I like your last line, the fact that I have gotten to the peak of my investment doesn't mean I will stop accumulating and then start waiting for Dip, to be honest it doesn't even make sense and it makes no difference because the time you are waiting for Dip, if use the that time to continue your investment it is possible that you can accumulate more fraction of Bitcoin than what you would buy during the Dip that is if the Dip will even happen or dip to the point you want to buy.

The size of your bitcoin stash as compared with any other investments that you have should end up informing you both in regards to your BTC accumulation strategies and/or if you consider yourself to start to transition out of your BTC accumulation period.

It can be difficult to answer these kinds of questions for other people including the fact that some people do believe that they are going to continue to accumulate bitcoin no matter what and even at an erratic rate, yet at some point it might not make sense any more for the person to be wanting to continue to accumulate bitcoin when he might have had assessed that he has enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin.

Maybe an example might help?

Let's say that a guy got into bitcoin in 2015. He was in his mid-30s at the time, and so now he is in his mid-40s.  He had an income of about $30k per year, and he had been working for 10 years.  Over the prior 10 years, he had saved up around $50k by investing between $50 and $100 per week and his investments had appreciated in value too.  When he heard about bitcoin in 2015, he decided to invest  20% of his investment portfolio into bitcoin which would be $10k, and he also decided to begin to put $100 per week into bitcoin, and to see how his bitcoin investment goes.

So if his initial investment of $10k into bitcoin got him around 36 BTC (at around $280 per BTC), then his continued buying of bitcoin ended up causing him to invest around $47k over the next 9 years and getting him another 31.6 BTC... .so then by the time March 2024 came, he had 67.6 BTC, yet his salary continued to ONLY be in the ballpark of $30k per year.  His bitcoin investment of 67.6 BTC in March 2024 would have had a 200-WMA value of nearly $2.2 million and a spot price value of around $4.6 million

I personally think that he could have had easily begun to draw somewhere in the ballpark of $150k per year or more from that quantity of BTC, so at some point the guy should have had concluded that he had enough BTC or more than enough BTC, even if he wanted to start to spend up to 5x or more of his standard of living by living off of the income from the BTC that he had accumulated.

Sure, we can proclaim that my example is a bit unrealistic, even though it is not.  We can choose other examples to show the point, or we can even choose examples where guys are not 10 years into their bitcoin investment, yet if I show an example of a case that would have had been further  along, we should be able to recognize that there are going to be various points along the way of investing into bitcoin that a guy might want to change his bitcoin investment strategy because he has concluded that he has achieved enough or more than enough bitcoin for his own purposes, and the mere fact that he has achieved enough or more than enough might not mean that he stops accumulating bitcoin, yet he might still change his approach to bitcoin accumulation and he may well end up feeling that he does not have to be as aggressive in his bitcoin accumulation practices.

However, real investor don't get tired of if investing because the more you invest and hold for a long time the more profit you are going to see so an investor who wait for Dip because they feel they have gotten enough Bitcoin is not a real investor.

It seems to me that you are speculating without really thinking through the practicality of people being able to achieve goals of having enough or more than enough bitcoin.  Sure, you can come up with some kind of an example of a guy accumulating bitcoin regularly, consistently, persistently and even aggressively, and perhaps you might find that he still needs to accumulate more bitcoin, yet at a certain point, many guys may well come to a reasonable conclusion that he has accumulated enough or more than enough bitcoin in regards to his own situation, his satisfaction in terms of being able to live at the standard of living that he likes, and his goals in life.