Atletico's journey to get the trophy is quite difficult when talking about the Copa del Rey. Their semi-finals are still the same as against Barcelona who can always manage to get the advantage in the last minutes and it is the same as what happened in their 2 matches that have been passed in the first leg and La Liga continued last week. On the other hand, when talking about the possibility of winning, the final is likely to be troublesome again because it is likely that on the other side Madrid will qualify for the final after winning the aggregate and the difference in strength with Sociedad.
Atletico's steps are quite difficult now but they still have a chance for the final only in the second leg later Simeone must be able to close the mistakes in the previous 2 matches against Barcelona because they are actually quite good but sometimes their focus is always lost suddenly especially when they are in crucial times.
Your analysis are topnotch, although Athletico Madrid has shown a good performance from the begining of this season no doubt but the truth is that we can't be too sure of them this time, one will say why will I say so, my reason for this is their recent matches, Athletico Madrid was supposed to win Barcelona in their last match but alowing Barcelona to win with such number of goals from behind and in a limited minutes to end the match have really shown how uncoordinated their defense is or will I say was that day, football is all about being smart or trying to capitalize on your opponent weaknesses to mess them up and I think that was what Barcelona did in that match and I blame Athletico Madrid for that.
I agree with your conclusions, for me athletico Madrid may end in the top four of the laliga competition this season but as for competing for the title race itself, I see that as a joke, they have chances to be part of it earlier but prefer dashing it, they should learn how to handle things whenever they are in a tight situation if not they will keep messing up, thats my take.