Germany has a momentum on their side since they were unbeaten their last 15 games. Italy has not, however, lost at home to Germany in their last 8 games. With Moise Kean on fire (15 goals in Serie A), San Siro is a dangerous fortress

Still, Germany has a terrible injury list: no Wirtz, Havertz, or Ter Stegen. That seriously compromises their stability and creativity . Italy's main loss is Dimarco, which hurts but not as much as Germany missing several playmakers

BTTS at 1.84 seems excellent. It is nearly certain given Italy's leaky defence (5 of 6 group stage games had both teams scoring) and Germany's attacking quality ( 14 goals in 6 Nations League games). I would lean Germany if this were on neutral ground. But in Milan, Italy edges it. Having said that, the Germans are clinical and may steal it late if Italy fail to seize their chances early