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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Biodom
on 23/03/2025, 01:56:00 UTC
⭐ Merited by xhomerx10 (1)
Remember the guy who said that bitcoin would be 84K on March 14 (he said it on Nov 26)?
Spookily, it happened.

In the same verse, he hinted at a 444K peak.

What's going on?
Are we in a 'controlled' universe where everything already happened or, pehaps, pre-programmed?
I don't really think so, but this gives me strange vibes:

https://youtu.be/2HRBJCp9XkI?t=21

Musk said something along the line a day or two ago, but not many people noticed:

https://youtu.be/CkManNuuYog?t=3320

This sounded truly "weird".


Concevons qu’on ait dressé un million de singes à frapper au hasard sur les touches d’une machine à écrire...

Emile Borel

edit: added the attribution for the quote


million monkeys would produce nothing as far as an intelligent text is concerned, but maybe milllion milllion million million.... monkeys could 'produce' something meaningful.
To be exact:

Quote
Ignoring punctuation, spacing, and capitalization, a monkey typing letters uniformly at random has a chance of one in 26 of correctly typing the first letter of Hamlet. It has a chance of one in 676 (26 × 26) of typing the first two letters. Because the probability shrinks exponentially, at 20 letters it already has only a chance of one in 2620 = 19,928,148,895,209,409,152,340,197,376[d] (almost 2 × 1028). In the case of the entire text of Hamlet, the probabilities are so vanishingly small as to be inconceivable. The text of Hamlet contains approximately 130,000 letters.[e] Thus, there is a probability of one in 3.4 × 10183,946 to get the text right at the first trial. The average number of letters that needs to be typed until the text appears is also 3.4 × 10183,946,[f] or including punctuation, 4.4 × 10360,783.[g]

Even if every proton in the observable universe (which is estimated at roughly 10^80) were a monkey with a typewriter, typing from the Big Bang until the end of the universe (when protons might no longer exist), they would still need a far greater amount of time – more than three hundred and sixty thousand orders of magnitude longer – to have even a 1 in 10^500 chance of success. To put it another way, for a one in a trillion chance of success, there would need to be 10360,641 observable universes made of protonic monkeys.

Hence, it is very unlikely...
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

  You're taking it too literally.   We get all sorts of predictions for the price bitcoin will be in a given time frame - some of them are correct.   We discount the incorrect and focus on the correct so we essentially validate those individuals' skills and perceive success when in reality it's more likely a lucky monkey imo.



it could be..for example, is W. Buffett a skilled investor or is it a confirmation bias?
It could be either way, buy i choose to put more credence to skill (or some strange perception) than to a random chance.
Was it a random chance that some of us were earlier than others in the bitcoin game?

Maybe 30% chance, 70% 'skill'? By 'skill' is this case i mean mostly certain beliefs, openness to new ideas with a bit of "oppositional" thinking, perhaps...at least during 2010-2016.