Bitcoin is likely best to be considered as a long term - rather than a short term investment. 

If you are thinking long term, you still might have to spend a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin, and then a second cycle HODLing (and receiving compounding value) and then maybe in your third cycle you might be able to begin sustainable withdrawal, so long as you had been aggressively accumulating (without selling) in your first one or two cycles.

Your ideas about 15% to 20% profits come off as quite inadequate.  There are many guys here who are sitting on 10x to 80x profits and even more and are not necessarily in a rush to cash out of their coins.. even though surely guys sometimes will take some profits along the way, so I am not going to completely bash you for those kinds of ideas, even though $100k seems a bit ant-ish, especially if you have not been around at least a whole  cycle.

By the way, even guys who had been accumulating bitcoin for a whole cycle, they still maybe be in the ballpark of 2x to 3x profits right now.. which means costs per BTC in the territory of $30k to $50k, so I doubt those guys are necessarily rushing to take profits.. even though there might be more justification to potentially shave off BTC from time to time if your costs per BTC might be below $20k - and even better if below $10k...

But at the same time, cost per BTC is not the ONLY calculation, since there is a certain value in regards to achieving a certain quantity of BTC, whether that entry-level fuck you status might be considered to be around 17.77 BTC or some other quantity that a guy might start to consider that he has entered into his own assessment of fuck you status.


Going below $30k may well be problematic, depending on the circumstances.

I am thinking tentatively that the BTC price is never going below $55k again.. yet I always have difficulties in regards to overly building up conviction in these kinds of "never again" statements.