My view about the Champion League is different from yours because while you believe that it is based on luck, I believe luck is just a fraction of what helps a team, instead, preparations and experience are more important factors. For instance, there is no how a team that is very weak and inexperienced will beat a team like Real Madrid or Barcelona that have good experience in the Champions League and also have the squad to beat any team. This is the reason we often predict, with some level of accuracy, the team that will win a Champions League match using available data such as present form of the team, the team mentality, experience and other parameters and not really solely on luck.