If a person is coming to bitcoin with an expectation to be staying into it for 4-10 years or longer, then by looking at the extent of BTC's volatility (and unpredictability of price direction), there should be little to no expectation that the investor's capital will be profitable in the first several years, and they should actually not be considering profits to be very important in the first few years of investing into bitcoin, especially since they likely are still in their BTC portfolio building phases, so there could be some advantage of not being in profits in the beginning, which means that they BTC price had likely been gravitating downwardly through their ongoing bitcoin buys.

I generally talk about 4-10 year or more investment timelines in bitcoin because I would not want to dissuade anyone who at least has a minimum of 4 years that they still are going to be able to invest into bitcoin, yet based on the way that bitcoin has historically been performing within the context of cycles, I would consider that 4 years would be the minimum timeline to be able to reasonably consider bitcoin as an investment rather than as a trade.

So personally I would consider 4-10 years as a short term investment into bitcoin, and surely since I also frequently talk about sustainable withdrawal, I consider that guys should not be building their bitcoin investment in order to cash all of it out, yet it would be better to employ some kind of a sustainable withdrawal that can be price-based and/or time-based (and I have a thread talking about sustainable withdrawal ideas).

But, yeah of course, anyone can do whatever they want when it comes to how to treat their bitcoin once they reach their goals and if they have inclinations to spend all of it or to invest in other assets, even though I consider there to be a lot of value in the employment of sustainable withdrawal practices, guys surely might have their own reasons to follow some other way of managing their bitcoin holdings and/or if they believe it is a good idea to completely sell off their accumulated bitcoin after perhaps spending many years building up their bitcoin stash (and hopefully the value has appreciated during that time too)..

By the way, regarding long term DCA with bitcoin, I believe that we can have a presumption that bitcoin's price trajectory is going to be up for the long term, yet even if we have a presumption, we are not guaranteed that bitcoin's price trajectory is going to end up playing out upwardly.


I was responding to @wakier's assertion that he was investing 15% of his income into bitcoin.  I said that what he is doing sounds like a pretty good (and potentially reasonable amount).  

I tend to invest  that beginners invest anywhere between 5% and 25% into bitcoin, yet they have to tailor their amount to their own desire for aggressiveness, and sure they can go outside of those bounds, yet that has been the amount that I have been recommending since 2020.  Prior to 2020, I would recommend that beginners invest anywhere between 1% and 10% into bitcoin, so even my own recommendation has gotten more aggressive since 2020, yet I still don't consider myself to be responsible for anyone's choice in regards to what they choose to do.  Each person has to be responsible for his own investment allocation choices and how they might structure their building up their bitcoin portfolio along with their considering of their various personal factors.


@wakier had given me the link to that example that included the weekly amount invested and the starting date and the period of time invested, so I just explained how the numbers worked out and I also described that I thought the person had reached an ability to support his own income in regards to his bitcoin investment, and yes, that is pretty amazing that historically someone who had invested 15% of his income into bitcoin would be able to have enough to pretty much support himself at the same rate after investing 7 years into bitcoin.

At the same time, we know that past results do not guarantee future results, so it could well be that a person might have to invest into bitcoin at a higher rate and even for a longer period of time to reach similar results, even though surely a person beginning to invest into bitcoin in September 2016 could have had achieved such self-sufficiency sustainable withdrawal results.


I use the 200-WMA valuation to come to the conclusion that such person has reached entry level fuck you status at his own salary level of $5k per year.  Of course, if he were to want to have a higher income, then he likely would need to continue to invest or perhaps just let further time pass, since the 200-WMA is continuing to go up greater than 20% per year, so in a matter of a few years, he could have a withdrawal rate that is double the current amount, meaning $10k per year.  So far bitcoin has continued to exceed the debasement of the dollar, so as long as a guy sticks with reasonable withdrawal amounts once he reaches such status, then his withdrawal can be sustainable at the same rate and including increases for the cost of living increases.


If a person has a $5k per year income, and he has been living on such income for several years, he may already know the extent to which he is happy with that income or if he might want to increase his income to a higher level in order to be happy.  

Surely, it would not be good to start to withdraw from the bitcoin investment at a high rate if there was a desire for it to continue to grow to the size that the person would find as an acceptable withdrawal rate.

I think that using our current income level is a good starting point, and surely if a guy wants to double his current income, he might have to continue to invest into bitcoin around 3 years after he had reached the level of being able to live off of his current income in order to double the sustainable withdrawal rate.  Each guy is responsible to figure out his formulas and to make sure that his formulas are sustainable once they are put into practice and then to monitor that they stay sustainable, even while in the process of withdrawing from the BTC stash.  If we want our BTC stash to be able to provide perpetual income at our chosen standard of living, then we should not want to deplete our BTC stash faster than it is growing, and sure again, I consider measuring at the 200-WMA to be able to provide way more reliable results than to get caught up upon the various extreme fluctuations that are likely to continue to take place in regards to BTC spot prices.


You might be o.k. with your approach to your BTC len01, yet you seem to be taking the matter to an even further extreme than is necessary.

It is true that we should put our investment into bitcoin at such an amount that we are not bothered by it.. whether that is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount, and we should not allow ourselves to be affected by that amount in material, emotional and/or substantive ways.  

Our lives may still be affected since we won't have that money that we had invested into bitcoin available to us for 4-10 years or longer.  

At the same time, we have to also be careful to protect our bitcoin so we may well have to NOT consider our bitcoin as trash.  Yes, a cold card is considered to be one of the better of the hardware wallets, yet we may well want to check our bitcoin once a year or so, and make sure that we can still access our stash..and even to consider if we need to stay with that particular wallet or if there might be some reasons to change our bitcoin storage practices...Sometimes we might be better off to not change anything, but only to make sure that we can still access our coins.


Each person has the capacity to set up his DCA frequency and amount in accordance with his own wishes, and there is no need to be consistent in the amount or the frequency, especially if a person's income and/or expenses might differ on a weekly or monthly basis.

Surely, people can even change in terms of their chosen level of aggressiveness and/or whimpiness, and surely I personally recommend that people try to be as aggressive as they are able to be without over doing it, yet there are some people who have complicated finances, so they may have to juggle their DCA amounts fairly regularly in accordance with changes in their income and/or expenses.

When I give examples of past performance, it is way easier to average out how much a person might have invested over a period of time , such as 8 years (or whatever was the time period), and then to look at the results of that kind of an investment pattern, yet in reality, a person might have had a lot of variance in his income and/or expenses during that time, so maybe his first year he was investing into bitcoin at $50 per week and building his emergency fund at a similar rate, but then maybe he received a bonus, and then he was able to solidify his emergency fund and other back up funds, and then he moved over to $100 per week for the next year and a half or two. and then maybe for another year he was investing at $150 per week, but then he had some financial problems, so he ended up reducing his invested amount to $75 per week for the following 9 months before he was able to return to $150 per week.  In his last 2 years, he had been mostly investing at $200 per week, even though he had about 8 weeks during that time where he was ONLY able to invest at $50 per week.  In the last three years, he had also received about 5 bonuses that varied between $500 and $2,000.  Each time that he got the bonus, he made sure that he invested at least 60% of the bonus into bitcoin, then he would figure out what other projects or needs that he had in regards to the other 40%, and if he could not think of how to invest the other 40%, then he also added some of that to go into bitcoin.

Real life can have quite a bit of variation, and there even could be some periods in which a person who had been investing more than $200 per week into bitcoin is not really able to invest into bitcoin, yet maybe he still chooses to invest $20 per week during that time.  It is way easier to approximate an average investment amount for each week rather than to try to take into account how the reality of income and/or expenses mighty have a lot of variability, even for people who might otherwise have strong finances and strong cashflow management skills and practices.


I understand that many times guys like to get caught up on the idea of consistency, and even to proclaim that one of the requirements of true and/or strict DCA is to be consistent, and I truly don't consider that consistency is a requirement for true and/or strict DCA.  

It could be true that some guys have such regular incomes and/or expenses that it ends up that they are consistently investing the same DCA amount, but those guys are probably not very typical.  There are also guys who purposefully set up automatic DCA amounts every week, and so they end up being consistent and prioritizing their DCA to be the amount that they chose, yet the setting up of automatic or manual DCA buys that are the same amount every week is not required to perform true DCA.  

I would suggest that the consistency is an option rather than a requirement, even though surely anyone trying to be aggressive in their bitcoin investment are going to want to try to invest as consistently, persistently and aggressively as they are able to achieve, yet even with their preference to invest consistently into bitcoin, they still might have variance in their income and/or expenses that might contribute towards their needing to change their amount invested or their frequency invested, but they still can be engaged in acceptable DCAing practices that are customized to their own financial and/or psychological circumstances.


You might have some practices that you do that might include that if certain funds get down to certain levels (low), then you are triggered into more conservative behaviors, and of course, there is a bit of balancing in which you may be trying to exercise your best judgement to keep buying bitcoin every week, yet at some point, if your finances get down to levels in which you are dipping into your emergency fund, then your bitcoin purchases should have had stopped at some point prior to that (even though sure, it is still up to each of us, and sometimes we make mistakes by overdoing it in one direction or another).