What I'm saying in ernest is that Manchester City have a higher probability of qualifying for the Champions League next season than ever Chelsea even though the later is ahead of them with 2 points.
I don't think so. Manchester city is not in a better position than Nottingham Forest and Chelsea. City is in fifth place in the points table. The team is fighting to qualify for the Champions League. And yet this team's performance is very irregular. Manchester City has lost points in the last two matches. And if such a performance continues, Manchester City has no chance of occupying the fourth place in the table.
Personally , I don't think Nottingham forest will lose the third place in the table. Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle and Brighton are fighting for the fourth place in the table. And among these four teams, the most consistent and stable performance is Brighton's.
As much as I hate to say this, I believe Manchester city chances of qualifying for the champions league is as slim as every other team in competition with them and just as you stated, their performance of inconsistency is the role reason for this and it would be hard to believe that this particular team was the same team that conquered the premier league last season with so much playing strength and good performance.