Post
Topic
Board Economics

Re: Will China become the largest economy in the world?
by
DrBeer
on 29/03/2025, 09:41:33 UTC


China "will not" become the richest nation in the world. I said that between "" because while the numbers could eventually one day show that they are, it is the bubble that you talk of that makes it fake. Do you know how you know which nation is richest? If Chinese in general (average Chinese person) have hard time buying European and American products, but Americans and Europeans could buy Chinese products easily, that means the gpa is still there.

Sure there are rich Chinese people, and there are more money in China, but that doesn't change the life of an average Chinese person. A German, or a new yorker could buy whatever they want from China and can afford it easily, same but in reverse is still not possible.

To be fair, China is not going to overtake the United States and become the world's largest economy in the near future. But it is not true to assert that they cannot and will never rise to become the world's number one power. We don't have a crystal ball to know what will happen in the future.
But look at their GDP growth in recent decades, they went from the 20th largest economy in the world to the 2nd largest economy in the world in less than 2 decades. It can be seen that they are developing at a rapid pace, something that few other countries can do. Based on that data, we can see that China has opportunity and potential to surpass the United States.

Even the United States acknowledges the challenge from China and if they do not act, it is only a matter of time before China surpasses them. That's why American politics is deeply divided on many issues, but when it comes to dealing with China, both parties agree that they must find ways to stop its rise.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp

China may retain the status of the largest manufacturing economy, but the fact is that it remains a quantitative indicator, but not a qualitative one. Besides, we know very well, no matter how Chinese official channels try to present the story, the reality is that the Chinese economy depends on Western technology, Western investment and Western consumer markets. As much as China would like to, without, for example, the European market, it will never make a profit on the African and/or Asian market commensurate with that of the EU. Third world countries do not demand expensive and high quality goods with high added value like the richer European population. Plus huge subsidies from the “state pocket” cannot last forever either, e.g. when the USA loses its markets to the EU and other developed countries. Therefore, the “world factory” will remain, but it is not the equivalent of the world's largest and strongest economy.

PS And yes - let's not forget about the problem of population aging and falling population growth, which will become very evident in the next 20-30 years