Post
Topic
Board Economics

Re: Will China become the largest economy in the world?
by
DrBeer
on 29/03/2025, 16:35:54 UTC



China may retain the status of the largest manufacturing economy, but the fact is that it remains a quantitative indicator, but not a qualitative one. Besides, we know very well, no matter how Chinese official channels try to present the story, the reality is that the Chinese economy depends on Western technology, Western investment and Western consumer markets. As much as China would like to, without, for example, the European market, it will never make a profit on the African and/or Asian market commensurate with that of the EU. Third world countries do not demand expensive and high quality goods with high added value like the richer European population. Plus huge subsidies from the “state pocket” cannot last forever either, e.g. when the USA loses its markets to the EU and other developed countries. Therefore, the “world factory” will remain, but it is not the equivalent of the world's largest and strongest economy.

PS And yes - let's not forget about the problem of population aging and falling population growth, which will become very evident in the next 20-30 years

Don't say they are dependent, they are cooperating with each other and both sides benefit. In commerce, where there is demand, there will be supply and vice versa. Also, not Europe, China is the second largest consumer market in the world and that is why CEOs of Apple or Meta...have to give in every time the Chinese government tightens their products. The Chinese market contributes significantly to the revenue of any technology product from the US.

How dependent is China on EU technology? When they can create their own powerful empires like Huawei, Xiaomi...making the US becomes wary and issues sanctions instead of fair competition. Meanwhile, what does the EU have or is it completely dependent on the United States? Social network Tiktok, Deepseek application...is that European technology?
China's potential to surpass the United States is huge and that is why the United States is constantly looking for ways to contain China's growth and expansion in the international arena.

By the way, the problem of population aging is a global threat, not just concentrated in one country.

Let's look at reality, shall we?
1. The creation of a large, high-tech “world factory” was based on Western investment and Western technology. This is a fact.
2. For example, the Xiaomi mentioned by you - produced.... And let's guess where? No, not in China ! But at the facilities of India's Westron, Taiwan's Foxconn, Inventec and Wintech....
Can you tell meabout Huawei, what's at the heart of it?  Smiley
3. Dependence persists, which is manifested in the systemic attempts of China, at the state level to engage in industrial espionage in the U.S. and EU. Especially in the US. This is also a fact.
4. investment flows from the western world to China have begun to decrease, which is a problem for China itself. now it is necessary to print more money to support its producers and look for new markets. Which, as I said, are not as profitable as the US and EU markets.
5. One of the key competitive advantages of China's “world factory” was the low cost of labor, which has virtually disappeared in recent decades. The cost of labor in China has gone up a lot, and no one works “for food”.

Let's be realistic about the situation ? Smiley