This is an ever-present problem in bitcoin, and any no coiner or low coiner who is not able to get out of this problem is going to continue to have the same problem that involves lack of action.  The solution to such lack of action problem is action, yet you are correct, a lot of folks have the problem of failing to act because they believe that the price has gone too high.. so they think that they have missed the boat, even if any of us might tell them over and over to just get started and stop thinking about historical prices that were cheaper.


So many traders think that they are smarter than everyone else, and it may well be true that they are smarter - however, at the same time, their failure/refusal to focus on bitcoin is going to contribute to their continuing to fall behind bitcoin investors, until they change their mindset away from trading (at least in regards to bitcoin) and start investing into bitcoin with a decent amount of their stash.. perhaps limiting their trading to 10% or less of their bitcoin portfolio size, unless they happen to be a rare trader who actually is able to profit from trading.. which yeah, that is a rare thing...

..and in bitcoin there is an additional problem of traders who might try to play both direction, so they might be doing alright on the calling of various up and down BTC price moves, and then all of a sudden bitcoin will do some kind of a stair case upwardly, and the trader will end up selling way more bitcoin than he should have sold and end up with hardly any bitcoin or very low quantities of bitcoin as the BTC price continues to go up after his sales... and we cannot be sure when these kinds of price moves come in bitcoin..


Sure, the more volatile an asset then the more tradable it is, and relatively speaking bitcoin is pretty volatile relative to other assets, so even bitcoin can be a good thing to trade in terms of short term profits.. even if the traders are not likely to do as well as the long term bitcoin investors, once we get past a cycle or two...

and, yeah, shitcoins tend to be more volatile than bitcoin, so they are even better to trade if there might be ways that the traders can account for the rug-pull factor, as you mentioned... and sure some traders try to become insiders to the various shitcoins so that they can be part of the rug pull group, which might work for some of them if you want to sacrifice ethics and even engage in scammy behaviors... and some people don't mind doing that as long as they get rich, but they still might end up with issues of losing money even if they had thought that they were part of the "insiders" team.


I agree that cycles have historically been present in bitcoin, and until they disappear, we are likely better off to assume that cycles are going to continue to take place, while at the same time knowing that cycles are not guaranteed to continue to occur... especially since the changes in the stock to flow, overall, are getting smaller and smaller and smaller, so the changes to the new supply issuance is also getting smaller as an overall proportion of the bitcoin supply... yet at the same time, the quantity of lost coins are probably quite higher than people think (including that some people might not even know that they have lost coins until they actually go to verify their access to their coins and they might not have the access that they thought that they had to all of their coins).   It can be challenging being our own bank, so then our leaving coins with third party custodians brings other kinds of problems in regards to the extent to which third parties actually have all the coins they claim to have.