I actually do love the mix of optimism and realism in your post/comment. You’re absolutely correct by implying that Bitcoin’s performances suggests that those crazy ass bull runs could eventually happen again, but like we already know, there’s absolutely not a single guarantee. So it’s pretty much about just weighing the odds involved and using that to make better and informed choices.
Without a single doubt, your assertion is very much agreeable that stocking up Bitcoin pretty much earlier than having to do it quite later is indeed a very solid strategy. When it comes to having to figure out how much one needs to accumulate next 4-10 years, and even more in some cases, it’s kinda like a personal decision but having and maintaining a long term perspective is the key to success when investing in Bitcoin.
I just seems that the investment thesis for bitcoin is not any weaker than when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, and there were a lot of trying times back then, and so in some sense, the answers today are not any different from what they were 11 years ago. .. continue to buy as much bitcoin as you are able to until you think that you have enough or more than enough... If you already got a bit of a headstart, then good for you. Maybe you have already accumulated a few BTC.
But if you are just getting started right now, then maybe you first shoot for 1 million sats, and then you shoot for 5 million sats and then you shoot for 10 million sats and then for 21 million sats, etc, etc.
You might consider that you are ONLY able to accumulate so many sats, but if you are buying every week, whether $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount, then you are likely making progress in terms of ongoingly, persistently and consistently adding to your stash.. and so you might not even need as many bitcoin as you think that you need in order to get to your goals.. yet since the value of bitcoin in dollars is ongoingly changing, so there will continue to be need to monitor your progress in terms of something that is tangible, such as how much of a salary do you need every year in order to sustain yourself, and then perhaps at some point the quantity of bitcoin that you have might come to a high enough level.
For example, right now a guy who might consider that he needs $80k per year of income, he might consider that he needs 17.63 bitcoin or more in order to get over his status of his bitcoin being able to sustain that level of income from his bitcoin stash. Yet, if such guy with a requirement of $80k per year were to have a similar income target for 10 years from now, then he might only need right around 2 bitcoin or more in order to accomplish that same level of income (even accounting for the debasement of the dollar). Sure, we cannot know exactly how the values are going to work out, yet a guy who might be looking to get to that same status might find that it could be way easier to reach the 2 bitcoin or more future target as compared with the 17.63 or more bitcoin that is needed today for the same income level.
Surely, there are guys who also do not need that same level of income, so there could be guys that might need $40k per year or$20k per year, and they would need only 1/2 the quantity of bitcoin or 1/4 of the quantity respectively as the guy with the $80k per year requirement.
Couldn't it be said that the answers today are more compelling than in late 2013? Since then we have gone through the entire phase of denial from state actors to corporations and banks specifically to any other private or public individual being hostile towards bitcoin. Not a lot of those hostile positions are still around. Many have shut their mouth, many have been converted into bitcoiners, answers have been given by the network to anyone trying to shut it down or ban it from operating within their national boundaries, banks have adopted it as a product after claiming they would fire any employee owning bitcoin (Jamie Dimon).
If it is all about the multiple that someone can get out of their investment, then the answer is different today with regards to time spans and this can be said in hindsight. Bitcoin has made like 100x since late 2013 and while I would not say never here, going another 100x within the next 11-12 years is maybe too optimistic. But since the comparison is dumb as bitcoin should be put in relation to other asset classes and their potential, I think the investment thesis could be deemed stronger now than it was back then for most of potential investors. Geeks might argue it was crystal clear in 2013, but not everyone thinks and acts like that. But in regards to answers given by bitcoin to the doubters, in my opinion there are many more answers today than there had been back then.