Some hypothetical scenarios are not even worth asking in the first place. We are all aware that bitcoin is a volatile asset that is subject to either getting bullish or bearish due to the different market conditions but even at that, there are things you say that makes it looks like you are not informed on what is happening in the bitcoin ecosystem but just making a vague statement that is purely baseless.

from this point that we are currently, even if bitcoin is to go down, the least we should expect it to get to in the worst of case is that it gets to $50k. Even at that $50k, it doesn't look realistic because the market is on a part of positive movement. speculation are best done with facts, and whether you are being bullish or not, when your speculation is too extreme to a certain end, it just shows your assertion is purely baseless.
Long-term market speculation can be done by anybody even though you don't have the technical knowledge of understanding charts. As long as you have been actively involved in what is going on in the Bitcoin ecosystem, you should normally have enough information to make long-term speculation based on available facts. Your speculation might not be 100% accurate since the market is not manipulated, but a well-thought-out speculation can align well with the movement of the Bitcoin price overtime.