Barcelona has won both matches against Madrid by big margins. Barcelona won 4-0 in La Liga and 5-2 in the Super Cup. Also, we have seen Barcelona win in the last three matches against Madrid. Especially in the two matches this season, Madrid has performed very badly against Barcelona's attack.
Madrid's defense is still quite weak. Madrid's overall performance this season is a bit erratic only because of the weak defense. I doubt whether Madrid will be able to resist Barcelona with this weak defense.
The conditions may be a little different when Real Madrid lost to Barcelona in La Liga and the Super Cup because at that time many players were injured. The next match will not be easy because Real Madrid's defense is not consistent so when they don't have the best option to play more optimally, it is not impossible that Real Madrid will lose again.
But I am a little more confident that Real Madrid will win the match because in terms of morality, Real Madrid's game is a little better, even though Barcelona is much more consistent at the moment.