There could be some method in the madness.  Perhaps?


Ok... Sure.  Sounds like a plan.


I probably would not bring it up, except to point out a seeming pattern.  We should be trying to learn best and/or better practices, even though you likely consider your approach to be justified and/or justifiable and frequently you are pumping ideas about how you perceive it to be great to be overweighted in dollars. 

Sure, you have a plan in both directions, but you are still overweighted in dollars, which may well be good for you, your age and your risk tolerance, yet I would continue to like to argue and emphasize that an overwhelming majority of the world's population is already overweighted dollars likely you and likely even have less exposure to bitcoin than you, so I see hardly any point to either be emphasizing how it might be good for some people to feel good ideas to be overweight dollars, when that is actually not a good idea for an overwhelming majority of the world's population who are either no coiners or low coiners.. and even guys here are still stacking their bitcoin, and it is not a good idea to be waiting for the BTC price to go down further rather than to be consistently, persistently and ongoingly buying bitcoin, perhaps even aggressively too.

Even guys in the forum make mistakes to trade bitcoin or to sell bitcoin and speculating that they are going to buy back cheaper, which has historically been problematic to be employing those kinds of behaviors, and will likely continue to be problematic to be employing either waiting practices or selling to buy back cheaper practices, rather than just ongoingly and continuously buying.


Sure, it is good that you are prepared for any price direction, and you were prepared for any price direction in late 2022, also when you were selling and hoping for prices to go down to $10k-ish.. which surely did not end up happening, and even if you might have alternative resources to be fucking around with your bitcoin like that (or your likely under exposure to bitcoin), those kinds of tactics are and would have been worse for the low coiners and no coiners who hopefully not following your direction and instead should have had either been continuing to stack bitcoin in 2022 and 2023, or if at any point they were running out of money because they had been buying on dips, they should have had been HODLing and just waiting to be able to buy more whenever their checks were coming in, whether weekly or some other reasonably consistent intervals.


Sure you could perceive it as a problem to be buying bitcoin between $109k and even all the way down to $76.6 a month ago, yet anyone who are low coiners and or maybe they were new to bitcoin, they should not be preoccupying themselves with the bitcoin price, and surely sometimes the first years of buying bitcoin can be tough, including perhaps getting through a whole cycle of buying, and surely I have recently been liking to say that any guys who had been consistently buying bitcoin for 4-ish years (and not fucking around with selling and/or trading), then they are likely going to have bitcoin average costs that are around the same as the 200-WMA, and likely anyone accumulating bitcoin for more than 4 years are going to have average prices that are increasingly lower and lower than the 200-WMA.. which surely is a great place to be.

 I frequently say that my average costs per BTC are somewhere in the ballpark of $1k, so they are like 1/45th the current 200-WMA... and it took a while to get to such a status, so even in much of 2018 to 2020-ish, the 200-WMA was gravitating upwardly, and so in the beginning of 2018, it was around $1,500 yet by the end of 2020, the 200-WMA had got up to $8k-ish, so surely there is a certain level of safety in having both enough BTC but also having them be around half of the 200-WMA in early 2018 (which I think that my average cost per BTC was around $750 at that time) and then having my average cost to be around 1/8th of the 200-WMA - which was around the time that I started to consider my average BTC costs were around $1k.

Frequently, even if we might consider that our average costs per BTC are going up with the passage of time, if we are oingoingly buying bitcoin, our average cost per BTC is probably not even going up as fast and as far as the 200-WMA, since our earlier BTC buys, as long as we are not always cashing out are dragging down our overall costs per BTC. .and even helping the value of our BTC to be ongoingly compounding upon itself so long as we have a lot of time in the market (rather than trying to be timing the market).


Yes, of course, each of us is free to manage our bitcoin holdings how we like and to take our chances and to suffer the consequences of bad decisions or the benefits of good decisions.

You likely realize that historically, bitcoin has been quite forgiving for those who have largely errored on the side of holding, so you still could have and you likely can continue to get benefits from cashing out of bitcoin at various points along the way, and even though you ae likely getting a lot of regular cashing out of profits, you are likely not coming even close to the compounding value returns that guys who continue to hold their bitcoin, and so this is likely going to continue to be the case, even though surely there are no guarantees, and guys can do what they like in regards to managing their returns, and it seems to me that it continues to be inferior advice for guys to fail/refuse to try to build up their bitcoin  and/or to let their bitcoin ride rather than cashing out at many points in time that largely resembles more of a trader rather than an investor, even though there are investing attributes and inferior practices that you frequently are preaching.. which gives any of us rights to preach back at your seeming ongoing love for ben franklins.


You deserved it.


Sure, maybe for you personally it was the best thing to do, and you were pumping your bags too in trying to get guys to maximize their T-Bills or whatever were those then interest bearing dollar bond instruments that both locked you in and returned 5%.. and yeah.. even after a few years, holy fucking shit, guys would have had been way better off to be buying bitcoin around those 2022 and 2023 times, even if they might have made mistakes and averaged $25k to $30k for their bitcoin instead of fucking with those dollar-based distractions that you were promoting around then.


Go ahead and buy.. no problem with that, and you are not even telling the truth.  You are still going to be overly weightd in the dollar and you will buy BIGLY the more that the BTC price dips, but you have not been buying bigly throughout the years, even when you said that you reformed yourself in your old ways.. you continue to trade and to sell a lot on any particular run that we get, so even if you buy BIGLY, you are also planning to sell BIGLY too upon any price runs that might come and surely you likely never reach a status of overaccumulation, which seems to be a prerequisite in regards to selling, and even then, I surely do not advocate selling with intents to buy back cheaper. which is your ongoing modus operandi... so our opinions continue to differ, and I continue to like to point that out so that hopefully not too many guys get distracted into your ways of managing your bitcoin holdings, even if there might be times that you are getting lucky with a certain level of BTC price drops, those still do not tend to be good practices for guys who are still somewhat earlier in their BTC accumulation phases, that can surely last at least a whole cycle, if not two cycles, unless guys already have money that they can front load into their bitcoin investment. 

Most guys do not have a lot of money that they can front load into an investment like bitcoin, which is part of the reason that it takes a lot of guys a couple of cycles to build up their bitcoin holdings to such a status where they might start to get into a position to sell or to buy on dips rather than consistent, persistent, ongoing, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying of BTC (without fucking around with selling and/or trading).

You brag about being able to buy dips and about wanting the BTC price to continue to dip, and surely that might seem to be working for you at this particular, but it is not a good practice, and you have likely been burned by that practice over and over through the years, but you still want to brag about it as if it were a good practice, especially in regards to bitcoin, which it is not, has not been, and likely will not be a good practice into the future..


All practices are not equal, even if guys are free to choose their practices.


There are guys in this thread that are participating in bitcoin at various levels, and sure some guys might have gotten through a whole cycle or maybe two cycles of accumulating bitcoin, so they might be feeling that they have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin, yet I doubt that guys like you, Ambatman, who are merely coming upon a couple of years of being registered on the forum (and potentially ONLY accumulating bitcoin around that same amount of time), are really getting to the point that you have been able to accumulate enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin in order to evolve out of a straight and consistent accumulation mode into some kind of a mode that you might even include some selling in your practices.  Sure maybe you have been able to front load your investment, but not that many people are in such a position to be able to accomplish such front loading.

Guys who had been accumulating bitcoin for more than a whole cycle and perhaps even getting on two cycles might be starting to feel that they are getting close to having enough or more than enough BTC, and sure, there are some of these guys who might drag out their BTC accumulating journey longer based on their fucking around with trading that might not end up working out as well as a strategy that would have had focused on bitcoin accumulation.


To me, it seems one of the most effective strategies in bitcoin has been ongoingly buying, and surely some guys are able to supplement their ongoing buying with buying on dips, whether it is 75%/25% to buy right away versus saving for dips, yet I would think that it can become problematic to be holding back too much value for buying on dips or supplementing too much of the DCA with buying on dips, yet surely guys are free to choose how they apportion these kinds of matters...and surely they are going to be the ones who experience whatever consequences come from their choices.  We cannot really side for guys even though likely are some kinds of BTC accumulation and/or allocation choices that are better than others in terms of making sure to emphasize bitcoin accumulation, yet surely guys are not necessarily going to come to similar conclusions and some guys even have complicated life and/or financial  and/or psychological circumstances that may well affect how much they are able to allocate towards bitcoin , even accounting for their 9 individual factors.


I agree that there are trade-offs to any choices that we make, and likely even the best of decisions and practices include places that we see that we could have had done better, since so many times, after the price has moved up or down, we can see that we could have had played that better, since the subsequent BTC price moves looks so obvious after the fact, even though it was not even close to obvious before it ended up happening.


There seems to be a lot of ways that guys have gotten rich as fuck with bitcoin, even if their bitcoin accumulation strategy might have had been relatively whimpy... yet there still was a bit of need to error on the side of accumulating and holding in order to have had been able to profit from bitcoin.  We have seen so many guys who had ended up selling too much bitcoin too early, and then getting bitter about matters including their own dilemmas about when (or if) to get back into bitcoin... so yeah, sometimes guys end up bing their own worse enemies when they sell too much too soon.  It sometimes can become quite difficult for guys to buy back into bitcoin, especially at higher prices than what they might have ended up selling at.


Funny thing is that you are still fucking around with trading bitcoin, and surely you can recognize bitcoin's number go up aspect, but you still consider bitcoin to be fundamentally broken, which likely is going to contribute to your continue to approach bitcoin as a trader rather than  mostly holding it and appreciating the various ways that it is valuable, even if your BIG blocker nonsense did not work out and you still want to hold onto your dumb prior ideas out of beliefs that somehow the BIG blockers got screwed and Blockstream screwed up bitcoin blah blah blah.


Sure maybe you are getting better, but you still emphasize holding a lot of dollars, which surely remains problematic.


You have lame ideas like this.  Bitcoin is both a store of value, and it can be used to transact directly, and it has a lot of other use cases, so getting caught up in narrow narratives is not going to help you to understand bitcoin better.


Also, you are not able to get out of dogmatic thinking either, and also putting limits on your own ideas of upside, even if such upside might not end up playing out this cycle.

I try not to get overly caught upon upside scenarios or even caring if they happen, but it becomes problematic to rule them out or to trade on your ideas, which you end up convincing yourself to sell too much too soon. or rationalizing ways to trade bitcoin waves, so yeah, at least you are hanging onto some bitcoin, but still you likely would not have any more bitcoin left if the BTC prices were to hit $500k this cycle.. let's say in the coming 6 to 18 months.. not that our current cycle (to the extent that they still exist), might not end up having potentials to drag out into 2026.