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Of course nobody could know for sure where bitcoin is going or could be going, but in hindsight there is now some basis for doing some comprehensible calculations. Those calculations can't be accurate except for hitting the bully eye out of pure luck, but they can now contain some reasonableness. Putting the total amount of a new asset class, in this case a digital asset class which was bound to develop in these digital ages, into perspective of total global assets could have provided an indication for the upside potential back in 2010,11,12 and afterwards. That is why I think there is still great upside for bitcoin, but relatively lower compared to what it was. This is not worth mentioning because any asset class that literally starts at zero has an almost unlimited upside potential, but I think you know what I mean.
Bitcoin has tons of potential and I doubt that a shitcoin will take its place unless there is a hugely orchestrated move by dozens of the existing billionaires, but seeing how twitter tanked in value makes me confident that even an orchestrated move to shift value from bitcoin to another shitcoin network could go horribly wrong for them. I think that it is true that with something like a protocol layer asset like bitcoin and/or money, the challenger to the incumbent (bitcoin in this case), needs to be around 10x better or more in order to unseat the incumbent. Part of the reason that bitcoin is going to be unseating both gold and the dollar is because bitcoin is more than 10x better than either of those systems... even though it could still take 50-200 years for the unseating to take place and for bitcoin to mostly replace gold and/or the dollar.
Sure, many things could happen in the next 50-200 years in order to change the dynamics and our to change the current trajectory, yet based on our current information, we should continue to recognize bitcoin as the dominant one in which all monetary value will flow, and it was also likely true 10 years ago or more and even more difficult to see, even though bitcoin's superiority should be within reach of being seen, even though surely it seems that a lot of normies continue to be confused about both what bitcoin is and/or to imagine that bitcoin is going to continue to eat away at the monetary value of a lot of assets that are currently monetized, since bitcoin is the superior and more efficient money. Even if we are talking about monetized assets, such as real estate, stocks, bonds, art & collectables, other commodities that are being used for their monetary value rather than for their utility value, many of these will be revalued to be closer to their utility value and the excess monetary and/or storage of value aspects being kept in those various other assets will flow into bitcoin as the superior and more efficient money (including bitcoin's storage of value aspect), yet of course, bitcoin is superior in regards to its other monetary attributes too, such as its transportability, verifiability, scarcity, divisibility, not needing a third party, cost savings, programability, and even bitcoin's non-physicality can be considered as an attribute when it comes to bitcoin's money qualities..
One of the biggest contra arguments some people bring up is that monetary policy can't be done with bitcoin during varying economic states like inflation, reaction to financial crises or other critical economic states.
Since you are speaking of
unseating both gold and the dollar, I was more thinking of coexistence where bitcoin will be the safe haven high value deflationary network that will force politicians into making sound monetary policy with fiat currencies or otherwise financial capital will further leave the fiat system and critically harm the underlying economy, in case of the dollar it would be the US. This would lead to fiat systems competing with each other because if they all do bad, they would be done rather sooner than later and wealth would be flowing into bitcoin.
If one government overreacts because of that and regulates bitcoin hoping this will help stopping wealth leaving their fiat system, other governments could embrace bitcoin and there strengthen bitcoin and their own fiat system plus their economy.
This is a very abstract explanation of how I can see this unfold because there is globalization and all sorts of financial interdependencies, which leads to trickle down effects if one fiat system crashes to the ground.
But maybe you can give your thought on this and since this is "Buy Buy... Sell Sell...", it still relates to the topic here as what I have explained is a strong argument to acquire bitcoin. What would your vision look like and how do you think would monetary policy work if bitcoin was the global currency?
I doubt that I am in a position to really elaborate on the various ways that systems might evolve, and including that governments are forced to be more responsible based on the competition of bitcoin to keep them in check in the event that they are being irresponsible.
I think that various debt systems are going to continue to exist, and that there are going to be governments and/or financial institutions trying to create systems to outsmart bitcoin's scarcity, so there will continue to be paper products and/or derivatives that create extra bitcoin, so then if they don't have the bitcoin that they claim to have, then they may well end up getting wrecked at various points in time, and surely there can be abuses in the system too in which the military is used and various state communication mechanisms to attempt to garner and/or force public opinion and/or to suppress opposition.
I am not going to claim to know, since we likely realize that we are empowered by physically holding our own bitcoin (private keys), yet individuals are points of attack so there will continue to be ways to individually target individuals whether the individuals have the keys or not... and some individuals are in weaker positions than others, while it becomes dangerous when governments and/or financial institutions are abusing power, and then people come up with other sly and round about ways of getting around their systems.. so they want us to formally work within their systems, yet at the same time, they cannot help but to abuse us and control us when we are within their systems, so the bitcoin separate systems will still exist for individuals, government and institutions to use in various ways, and it takes a long time for already existing systems to change and for the new bitcoin systems to have more prevalence.. and even our current battles with KYC are seemingly benign while there are attempts to KYC all avenues and to suppress bitcoin self-custody.. so there is power with more folks taking self-custody, even though systems are being created and spread to attract so many of us into third-party custodial solutions.
I know I am not really answering your questions, since one of the difficulties of predicting the future is that we only have some ranges of possibilities of various scenarios in which changes in few of the factors can end up having great ramifications to change the forward course, and both self-custody and third party custody is going to continue to exist and governments and financial institutions are going to continue to to acquire bitcoin and to try to make it harder for individuals to hold and transact, so that battle is going to continue to go on for a while, and it seems like a non-winning battle for governments yet they are going to continue to do it, and it is going to take way more adoption to help to curb that trend more in the favor of individuals.. 20-30 years or more? Perhaps more immediate than that, yet we still have such low levels of bitcoin adoption by normies, which is where bitcoin shines and empowers actual people (even though governments and institutions are also ongoingly figuring it out and getting into the game).
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Yes you are right what we use to accumulate and grow our Bitcoin is our Discretionary income however it is also good we have a reserve funds so when there's a dip we can accumulate aggressively using our reserve funds
some people argues that our reserve funds are not meant to be used to accumulate aggressively during a dip for me what you decide to use your reserve funds for is up to you is not something we should be arguing about, everyone that is building a reserve funds has a reason why he or she is building it.
You can do whatever you like with your reserve funds, including buying the dip.
People argue that you should not use emergency funds for buying the dip.
Emergency funds are different from reserve funds, and sure they are both kinds of back up funds, yet people are tending to argue that you have to have some back up funds that you don't actually spend unless there is an actual emergency. Buying bitcoin on the dip is not an emergency, yet reserve funds can be used for buying bitcoin on the dip, if you have any at the time that dips come.
For newbies low coiners and/or no coiners, it may well also not be a good practice to be holding fiat in reserve funds for the purpose of buying the dip, since newbies likely should be accumulating bitcoin regularly rather than holding back funds for the purposes of buying dips that may or may not end up happening.
DCA strategy is seen as one of the best investment strategy because it gives you the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at every price as we all know Bitcoin rise and fall the price fluctuate so using DCA strategy will make you buy at every price high and low.
Using DCA strategy to accumulate will also make you enjoy the process of Bitcoin investment.
DCA also eliminates the pressure of trying to time the market or predicting it.
Lastly by sticking to weekly or monthly accumulation of Bitcoin reduces emotional decision making the DCA strategy promotes discipline in investment, there by removing panic from investors during dip and also making them to focus only on long term investment.
This is all true. Regular buying is good for anyone who is still trying to build up their bitcoin stash and they consider themselves to be needing a lot more bitcoin. Some level of certainty comes from continuing to buy which is that your BTC stash will continue to get larger, even if the BTC price is likely fluctuating a lot along the way, you are still able to figure out how aggressively you are able to ongoingly buy bitcoin at regular intervals no matter the bitcoin price...and perhaps 4-10 years or longer down the road, you will have accumulated a decent amount of BTC and even potentially put yourself at an advantage in terms of the various options that you have because of your having had accumulated bitcoin.. yet your profits are not guaranteed, even if you did everything perfectly.