While Bitcoin is often considered as a "digital gold" that's not influenced by the traditional market chaos, this time it wasn't spared from the panic effects of the global market. Bitcoin and crypto analysts in general are also watching a possible “death cross” on the charts, which could signal more downside ahead.
I think the current weak price action is a mix of the influence of the tariff-driven uncertainty on global markets and "endogenous" Bitcoin issues.
The main endogenous issue imo isn't the death cross alone, but fears that the cycle peak could already have been reached with the 109,000 recorded in January. The "death cross", if it confirms, would be another hint that this scenario could become true. And thus some may sell expecting a more significant bearish movement, which could bring price down perhaps to 50,000 $ or even below. Not in a single crash but in a series of drops in the timeframe of a year or so. Just like 2022.
You could of course argue that the last cycles between ATHs were longer, about 4 years each. If the "cycle top 109,000" assumption was true, this time it would have been only 3 years and 2 months approximately.
On the other hand the drop isn't as strong as I would have expected if people already thought that "the party is over". I'd expect a 10%+ crash on a single day in Bitcoin too in this case, not only in volatile altcoins.
While some experts are expecting continued pressure on Bitcoin amid tightening economic situations, others believe that BTC could regain its role as a safe haven.
I think for the "safe haven" to become true volatility must lower a bit more.
We're on the right track but if the current tendency continues in around 5-8 years we could reach gold's volatility.
Even more important would be the first bear market not falling significantly more than -50%, which would be a sign of maturity. I think however the next bear market will take us still 60%+ or even around 70% down, but in the late 20s
BTC could reach this goal.