You should take note that as an newly investors who is just starting the accumulation journey or have limited experience should focus on consistency and regular investment regardless the market downturn, rather than trying to time the market this approach helps to reduce the impact of market volatility and timing risk management.
Why new investor to avoid timing the market, lack of experience can be a cause as an new investor you may not have the experience knowledge to accurately time the market, and trying to time the market can lead to emotional decisions making which usually leads to impulsive and costly decisions mistake.
Waiting to buy by timing the market is not only wrong for a newbie but also for an experienced investor who has not yet achieved his goal. Unnecessarily breaking the continuity of investment before achieving the goal is certainly not an ideal move for any investor, but rather a wrong move.
No matter what the market conditions are, the market conditions cannot have much impact on a long-term investor. From my perspective, the recession should be used to the maximum for buying. Because by buying during the recession, you will get the opportunity to buy more Bitcoin at a low price and you will be able to make yourself more profitable.
My advice would be to prepare a reserve fund in preparation for being aggressive during the recession by maintaining continuity in investing during the market bull run and be aggressive in investing as soon as the market is in a recession so that you are able to accumulate more Bitcoin and can move quickly towards achieving the goal.
I don't see how building a reserve fund helps to be more aggressive, except surely it helps for anyone who might make mistakes or if they might have extra expenses that they had not anticipated. Within DCA buying buys can already be choosing his level of aggressiveness, and sure there can be some value to hold back funds for various expenses, so that there is no need to sell bitcoin at any time that is not expected, and perhaps reserve funds would be first tapped into for anyone who might have some unexpected expenses, so that the emergency funds would be available for any actual emergency, yet the emergency funds might not be needed in the vent hat a person other wise has good cashflow management practices that includes maintaining various kinds of back up funds.
You make a very valid point about the building of a reserve fund. It’s true that the main idea of having a reserve fund is to provide a financial backup and a kind of a safety net to fall back on in cases of financial mistakes or unexpected expenses, which of course can really come in handy as it helps to reduce financial stress and pressure. There are times when people or investors resort to selling their Bitcoin holdings at unfavorable prices, simply because they have one bill or expenses to take care of, in such a situation, the reserve fund can kick in and help you avoid making such a financial mistakes, especially for those who plan HODLing for the long term.
Your advice and idea to tap into the reserve funds when there’s an unexpected expenses, rather than the emergency fund is spot on. Because, you can still end up reserving your emergency funds for actual emergencies and not spending them all in some petty bills and Small unexpected expenses.
Your theories are more of an advocacy for good cash flow management practices, like we know, which doesn’t only apply to one’s investment or portfolio but also includes managing and maintaining different types of backup funds which of course is also a very essential aspect of the investment. Not every investor knows this, but any investor who prioritizes this practice and approach would end up being more prepared for whatever situation or life’s uncertainties that may arise and also make more informed decisions concerning their investments.