I see your point and that's true even how deep your analysis things can go south, there's no guarantee inside gambling even how high the percentages of your chosen squad or player a bad performances will lead you losing your pick, upset is always possible and we've that in any types of sports, unlike with regular trading if you just buy and hold and wait for your set target there's always a good chance that the market will bounce and allow your position to triggered and give you decent benefits.
Even that can be said based on the facts that occurred, for example the defeat suffered by Real Madrid when facing Valencia because if we analyze further the results of the match between the two teams then we can conclude that Real Madrid will win the match, but on the contrary what happened Real Madrid lost to Valencia. That's what I said how football betting can be done based on previous match analysis but there is always no guarantee that the analysis can go according to our predictions because there are times when the match ends beyond predictions.