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After the first leg ended I thought Arsenal and Barcelona had already put one step into the semifinals. On the other hand PSG also had a big advantage after leading 2 goals over Aston Villa. I think only the match between Munich and Inter Milan is still being debated about who will advance to the semifinals. Munich lost 1-2 in that match but they still have a big chance to turn things around. And for Real Madrid I think they are really in a pretty tough situation. I always believe in Real Madrid's mentality and they can always overcome the tough situations they face in the UCL. But throughout the history of the UCL as far as I can remember there have only been 4 teams that have been able to make a comeback after being 3 goals behind in the first leg. At first I thought this was not a tough mission for Real Madrid. But the injuries to several key players and the red card received by Camavinga made this mission very impossible.
Bayern Munich and Inter are only 1 goal difference away so it makes sense that these two teams can still continue to fight for a 50% chance. As for Arsenal, Barcelona and PSG as you said they are already one step ahead. So in Leg 2 we can't expect more from teams like Aston Villa, Dortmund or even Madrid who have the nickname of comeback king but considering the condition of team cooperation and bad defense makes it not advantageous at all.
I think that the other teams that will pass this elimination, except for the match between Bayern Munich and Inter, are almost certain. The biggest surprise for me was that Real Madrid will be eliminated. Of course, the matches have not been played yet and it would not be right to say for sure, but with these defenders and a deficient squad, it will take a complete miracle for Real Madrid to eliminate Arsenal in this round. Arsenal's solid defense gives confidence to its team for the return leg. Real Madrid, on the other hand, has always shown throughout the year that it has problems in the defense area.