So On Jan 1 we are at
https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block: 877280 (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 96.3782% (321 / 333.06 expected, 12.06 behind)
Previous Difficulty: 108522647629298.2
Current Difficulty: 109782075598905.2
Next Difficulty: between 106232297455655 and 108717299668762
Next Difficulty Change: between -3.2335% and -0.9699%
Previous Retarget: last Sunday at 4:42 PM (+1.1605%)
Next Retarget (earliest): January 12, 2025 at 8:24 PM (in 11d 20h 11m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest): January 13, 2025 at 5:19 AM (in 12d 5h 6m 58s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 3h 42m 3s and 14d 12h 37m 35s
So 109.78t
My guess for Jan 1 2026 is
139.98t
but I would like to be wrong.
one of the problems is the s21xp is so much better than a s21 or a s19xp 270th 12-14 watts a th true beast
almost 2x the hash rate of the s19xp
270 at 3700 watts vs 141 at 3100 watts a big improvement for top of the line s19 series to s21 series.
If you go back to Jan 1 last year we were at 72th
I could see 144th if all gear running on jan1 2024 turned into s21xp by jan 1 2026
so 139-144t in a year.
for now lets see how we do.
While we speculate the difficulty of 2025 we are hoping that the best should be triggered.