Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: The Trump Dump
by
d5000
on 15/04/2025, 19:40:22 UTC
Very interesting because this graph is proving that S&P500 and Bitcoin are almost negatively correlated (-0.7), which means that when one goes up the other goes down and vice-versa.
Ah, no, that is just casuality that my mouse pointer was at a point with negative correlation  Cheesy

There were definitely such phases, but since 2020 the correlation most of the time was positive. The last value was actually 0.8462. I have changed the image of the post above to reflect that.


I honestly don't see actual correlation here, specially when we have these.
2x rise from 2015 to 2016 <=> a small drop in S&P500
a big crash from 2018 to 2019 <=> a small rise in S&P500
a big rise from 2019 to 2020 <=> a small drop in S&P500
Yes, but post-2020 there is a substantial correlation. See the graph above.

I mean the bitcoin price multiplied by 400 in that period while the S&P only like by 2.55 and they are supposed to be highly correlated?
Bitcoin generally exaggerates the S&P movements, but since 2020, it more often (not always) moves in the same direction.

I think the current situation is quite novel because there was no such exaggeration, when Bitcoin "only" lost approximately as much as the S&P 500, at least its swings are currently in the same order of magnitude.