There are ongoing problems when people might not be sure what they are doing (in terms of investing versus trading or in terms of being sufficiently acquainted with their personal factors) and what their goals might be, and so sure, you are correct to suggest that everyone is not going to be inclined towards treating bitcoin as a long-term investment and having plans that revolve around getting to a status of overaccumulation so that they can then start to employ some variations of sustainable withdrawal.

If they cannot get to such status or they find it futile to try to get to such status or they think that it might be too difficult to get to such status of overaccumulation, then they likely will engage in various kinds of behaviors that take away from their ability to make progress in terms of getting to such an overaccumulation status.

I believe that it is NOT a good idea to trade bitcoin, but instead to invest in bitcoin and not to use selling of BTC as one of the accumulation of BTC strategies.  To make progress in accumulating bitcoin,, there is no way to assure that selling is going to be helpful in regards to building the bitcoin stack and may well interfere with the ability to accumulate bitcoin and/or even contribute towards less bitcoin being accumulated over time.. Buying BTC through 1) DCA, 2) lump sum and 3) buying on dips remain the better of BTC accumulating strategies to assure that the BTC stack is constantly getting larger, even if there may well be times in which it's value, in terms of dollars might not be getting larger.

I am not going to proclaim that it is easy to either get to some kind of an overaccumulation status in regards to the bitcoin stash or that is going to be easy to figure out the differences between trading and investing into bitcoin, since it likely is true that so many folks might believe that they are investing into bitcoin, but then when the BTC price starts to move around a lot, they start to get nervous in regards to keeping their money in bitcoin and they may even have secondary goals that involve selling some or all of their BTC in order to be able to buy more BTC back at a cheaper price at a later time.    These tend to be fantasy goals that are very difficult to carry out, even if a person were to have some good hunches about bitcoin's short to medium price direction.

If people have mixed up ideas in their head in regards to what they are doing and why they are doing it, and they cannot even really figure out that ongoing investment likely involves ongoing buying and probably investing in learning more and more about bitcoin too.. and also learning about their own financial circumstances to the extent that they do not know them as well as they should be knowing them in the context of building strong cashflow management skills to supplement their investment into bitcoin, then they may well sometimes not be sure what they are doing or why they are doing it, and again end up failing/refusing to sufficiently stock up on bitcoin and prepare themselves and their bitcoin holdings for up and/or selling too much of the BTC that they had already accumulated too soon.

So surely one of the problems could be attempting to employ various sustainable withdrawal strategies prior to reaching an overaccumulation status, which may well result in overly depletion of the BTC stash and slowing down progress towards reach overaccumulation status.

Another issue when actually reaching overaccumulation status would be to employ sustainable withdrawal in ways that do not overly deplete the BTC holdings in light of the amount of bitcoin that the person has. 

Personally, I believe that historically, bitcoin has been quite a forgiving asset class for anyone employing reasonable sustainable withdrawal practices, and their bitcoin has been tending to grow faster than they withdraw from their stash. 

At the same time, there still likely needs to be assessments in regards to how to valuate BTC holdings in such a way that once we reach overaccumulation status and we start to employ sustainable withdrawal strategies that over depletion of the bitcoin stash is not taking place, whether employing price-based sustainable withdrawals and/or time-based sustainable withdrawals.

Of course, if someone is old, have health issues or have some other reasonable personal issues, they may end up choosing to deplete their bitcoin stash rather than employing sustainable withdrawal practices, and those are surely individual choices that come from individual circumstances in which they might consider depleting their bitcoin stash to be preferable over the employment of sustainable withdrawal practices.


If a person has invested beyond his means (or beyond his discretionary income), then they might find themselves in a position in which they realize that they had invested more than they can afford to lose.. so there are people get into situations of being overinvested in bitcoin, and surely it can be difficult to save people from themselves when they are not employing strong enough cashflow management or even strong enough accounting over their own income versus expenses in order to know how much money they need for their expenses, including projecting out potential emergency expenses and also including potentially having various kinds of back up funds (such as emergency funds and/or reserves) to cover the times in which they might have either made mistakes in their calculations or they come across situations in which they need extra money due to loss of income and/or increased expenses.


Anyone who has taken precautions and built up strong cashflow management systems would likely sell from their various back up funds first, to sell from their various reserve funds and then sto sell from their emergency funds and then at a certain point if they exhaust all of their other funds, then they would ONLY have their bitcoin remaining, and sure there could be some emergencies that happen that end up depleting all of our various funds, and surely we would try to prepare and protect ourselves from the more minor types of emergencies, and perhaps we get to such financial strength that we are able to protect ourselves from quite extensive emergencies, but there could be cases (especially when we are in the earliest of stages of building our bitcoin investment and our building our cashflow management systems) that we are not able to protect our investment because we have exhausted all of our other funds.

Each of us has to attempt to judge how much preparation that we need to do, and surely folks who have more uncertain income and/or expenses are likely going to have to keep more reserve funds. .and each person has to figure out those matters, and frequently I suggest that folks starting out investing into bitcoin to build emergency funds and bitcoin investments at the same time, so surely it could be the case that for a whole year or  more the emergency funds and back up funds might be less than 3 months in their ability to cover expenses, and I consider that to be a reasonable trade off in terms of trying to prioritize building up a bitcoin investment, which surely there are some folks who have higher levels of discretionary income in which they can build both their bitcoin investment and their emergency funds and other back up funds at the same time.


We usually set aside various kinds of back up funds as part of our cashflow management that includes emergency funds and reserve funds.  Floating funds tend to be the kind of money that we have between periods of getting paid in which we might not know if we need them for expenses or not. Once our expenses are confirmed, and if we have any floating funds left, they would become available for spending, investing or putting into our emergency funds or into our reserve funds.


Some guys may well be able to reach overaccumulation status in a short period of time of months and other guys might take 10-15 years or more to reach such overaccumulation status.

I think that with bitcoin, there still can be some advantage of holding onto our bitcoin for at least a whole cycle, even once we reached overaccumulation status (in the cases of guys who reach overaccumulation status early by front loading their investment or perhaps reallocating out of other assets). 

It is difficult to generalize for all cases, even though surely one of my presumptions is that most guys are going to need 4-10 years or more to accumulate bitcoin prior to reaching overaccumulation status, even though some guys are able to reach such overaccumulation status early.


It makes a difference if you are somewhat new to investing or if you have been investing for a while before coming to bitcoin, yet I would presume that most normal folks will take at least a whole cycle to accumulate bitcoin prior to reaching over accumulation status.