No way Nottingham Forest are not qualifying for Champions league. From Nottingham Forest down to Chelsea are over with one point. Among the four teams, only Nottingham has been consistently playing well, i don't mind seeing Manchester City not qualify because they have been poorly in form and need time to construct the squad. Newcastle may also not be coming down, Chelsea and Manchester City need to find a way to come on top.
For me it is not guaranteed, and even Chelsea, Man City and Newcastle are still be able of shifting Nottingham position. Chelsea only has a 3 point difference with Nottingham and only needs 1 win for Chelsea to shift Nottingham position.
I don't believe you if you say that only Nottingham are playing consistently while Nottingham have lost their last 2 games. The defeat is proof that there is no guarantee that Nottingham can stay consistent and still get a UCL ticket. There are 6 games left that can change something good to be very bad.
Chelsea are going to find it difficult except they put out extra ordinary performance in this few games left. Half of the matches remaining will be played against tough clubs like Liverpool, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, I never included Fulham as we know how sometimes they refuse to get beaten by big teams.
When it gets to limited games left for the season even the season underdogs begins to play better. Nottingham Forest lost 2 games in a row and still directly under Arsenal, all teams are trying their best but I only can speak of a team I see that has done so well beyond expectations.