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In conclusion, DCA method of accumulating bitcoin solves this problem people think of over pricing and I will not have to tag those who bought bitcoin early as been lucky because they took risk and their risk paid off and that shouldn’t be classified as luck.
There might be several reasons why people miss out of bitcoin regardless of the market price and just as it is difficult for an average person to raise $85k to buy one bitcoin, so it was back then even when bitcoin was $1k and even below and that alone makes not not to judge anyone but rather encourage people to buy and hold for much more longer time.
No matter the price of BTC, each of us still would have had to have figured out how much of our discretionary income we were going to put into bitcoin versus using that discretionary income for other purposes, whether consumption, or other investments.
The smaller amount of our discretionary income, then likely the more years that we would have had needed to spend, to even get an average cost per BTC around $1k, and so even the average cost per BTC is likely less important than how many BTC we had been able to accumulate, even if our average might have had to have had gone higher than $1k per BTC since we may or may not have had been able to accumulate enough BTC while the BTC prices were still below $1k, and surely we can look at the BTC charts and see that after about March 2017, bitcoin never returned back to prices at or below $1k per bitcoin.
Even now, it is more important to continue to consider how many BTC that we are able to accumulate, and sure sometimes BTC price dips come, but we have no way of either knowing when they might come or if they might be sustainable, so many times we are just blinded by future bitcoin price performance and the main way to continue to accumulate bitcoin is just to keep buying so that at some future date, we have gotten enough or more than enough, even if our average costs per BTC might be $50k or $100k or even ending up being $150k or more... If we are just getting started, we may well end up with average costs per BTC that are $150k or more, especially if we are looking at investing into bitcoin for 4-10 years or more down the road and we might just be getting started in the current times.
Even you, Ojinga, have ONLY been registered on the forum for less than 1.5 years, so you may well realize that it takes a while to build your bitcoin stash, even if you maybe have had been able to front load your bitcoin investment over the last year and a half or so.
Regarding luck.. There probably is some luck involved, but like you suggest Cookdata holding and even continuing to buy through the years is not ONLY attributable to luck... even though there may well be some luck involved, since folks are in different places at different points of their lives and in regards to their abilities to spend time, money and energies on something like bitcoin
JJG I read what you wrote above that's why I decided to ask this question directly, those who bought bitcoin when bitcoin was $1k as at then, and they hold onto it for years and bitcoin prices increased along the line less say to $30k and they profited massively from their bitcoin holding, so now my question is, where they lucky to buy bitcoin when bitcoin price was $1k and hold onto it for years or they just make the right decision buy buying bitcoin with believe that it we increase in price one day since bitcoin is decentralized?
Mate I want you to understand that risk and luck may work together but not in all cases, the people you're talking about saw an opportunity and embraced it not minding the risk involved, so to me those people that bought at the price you mentioned took the risk after even though Bitcoin price drop to $1 today some people will not still buy, some will want to see it as the end of discussion in anything relating to Bitcoin, as a matter of fact those that bought Bitcoin at that early stage when some people never know much about Bitcoin are the main risk takers, yea some early investor may have invested in Bitcoin because of it's decentralized nature but I don't think it should be there major reason for investing in Bitcoin because I believe that before anyone that wants to invest in a asset must have in mind to get profit as time goes by in the future although not necessarily immediately.
Buying at $1k is another thing and hodling for a long-term is called descipline, patience and perseverance which is even the risk itself and I believe that, it is not all bitcoiners that got the aforementioned attributes.
Personally, I have frequently suggested to guys that it helps to just keep buying bitcoin on a weekly basis.. .the weekly buying helps to reinforce the conviction, especially during the first whole cycle, and of course, if any of us gets through at least a whole bitcoin cycle of buying bitcoin, then whatever quantity of bitcoin that we had accumulated should help to inform us the extent to which we might want to teak what we are doing away from persistent, consistent, regular, ongoing and perhaps even aggressive buying of BTC.
When Bitcoin was first launched in the market, many people did not dare to take risks. Because Bitcoin was new to the market at that time. But in the current situation, many people do not dare to buy Bitcoin because the price of Bitcoin is very high. All these people will never be able to do anything good from the Bitcoin market. Because they get restless after seeing small market declines. In the case of Bitcoin investment, you have to have complete faith in Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is still far from what Satoshi Nakamoto thought about Bitcoin. Whatever the price of Bitcoin is, as an investor, you should keep buying continuously and keep buying continuously until you can accumulate enough BTC in your portfolio.
I disagree with you mate, when Bitcoin was launched into the market, the reason why some people did not buy was not because the price was high no rather the reason why some people did not buy Bitcoin back then was because they did not know Bitcoin will be this valuable and great that is to say that they didn't see the potential of Bitcoin, they were so myopic and some even see and address it back then as a scam and today those people who was seeing Bitcoin that way are regretting why they didn't t make use of that opportunity.
You said the price of Bitcoin was high which is wrong and even if the price of Bitcoin was high, they didn't ask anyone to buy it at a time, the DCA method was there so why didn't they use the DCA method to be accumulating little by little, see the thing is some people were not interested in It, they were not thinking what it will become of the asset in years coming rather they were just thinking within the box ( what will happen immediately).
Today some people are still saying this you said that the price of Bitcoin is high, remember nobody ask you to buy a whole number of Bitcoin (1 BTC) at or in a time rather you are advise to use any of the 3 strategy or method that best suits you ( the one that will be convenient for you), the DCA is there to help people since they can not buy a Bitcoin at once, an investor who knows what he wants no matter the situation will always device a means to make something work out for him or her. And note, one thing is for sure and that thing is someone who will not buy Bitcoin will never buy no matter how the price of Bitcoin drops.
Throughout bitcoin's history (and even before I came to bitcoin), people frequently have been proclaiming that bitcoin's price is too high, so they remain ongoingly nervous about bitcoin's price, which also likely means that they are ongoingly failing/refusing to look into bitcoin and to thereafter start to put some value into it.
Accumulating Bitcoin when the price is low could only be a perfect decision when you are consistently and persistently accumulating Bitcoin using the DCA strategy and not waiting for the price to drop before accumulating Bitcoin because if you wait to accumulate when there is a dip is a very wrong decision because you will end up just accumulating little bitcoin since the dip is not what occur regularly, accumulating aggressively when there is dip and not overly doing it in a way that it won't affect youand also maintain your regular DCA strategy can be considered as a perfect decision because you bought enough Bitcoin when there a dip and hodl.
It can be a good decision to be aggressive in investing according to your ability while maintaining continuity of investment during a downturn. However, you need to make sure that the extra money you are investing aggressively with is not unnecessary for you or will affect your life. A market downturn provides an investor with a great buying opportunity, but it goes without saying that if you make the wrong decision while using it, it will bring negative results. It is not as important to be aggressive in investing as it is to be consistent in investing and be able to meet daily needs. For this, you will definitely have to use unnecessary money, whether it is in DCA or to be aggressive. So if you do not have excess cash flow or cannot afford to be aggressive in investing, then leave that opportunity, because the market declines happen again and again and you will get that opportunity again and again.
I frequently suggest to invest as aggressively as you can without overdoing it, and your ability to be aggressive is most likely related to your management of your cashflow and perhaps the regularity of your cashflow... and so even if you have a small amount of income, you can still be aggressive, yet you still have to employ good cashflow management skills that includes keeping some backup funds, such as emergency fund and reserve funds.
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Those who invested in bitcoin earlier when the price was very much affordable took risks but with a touch of luck because the reason why i added luck is because even, they themselves never knew that bitcoin would grow this huge because if they knew that bitcoin will grow to this extent it is now, they could have bought a lot of bitcoins then because it was very more affordable than now, so they basically invested with their discretionary income and just invested reluctantly
that even if they don't succeed in their investment, it won't be painful to them.It is correct to suggest, and argue that anyone attempting to invest in anything (whether bitcoin or otherwise), they are prepared for up, down and sideways scenarios, and surely with bitcoin, 8-10 years ago a person might have started out by investing somewhere between 1% and 10% of their investment portfolio into bitcoin, and surely, if they were skeptical about bitcoin, they might have invested towards the lower end of the range and if they were more bullish, they might have invested more towards the higher end of the range, and perhaps even went beyond the range, yet still they are hopefully protecting themselves against BTC price moves in either direction, including the possibility that BTC could have had gone to zero.
Another thing is that from 2014 to 2020 I had been suggesting to invest 1% to 10% into bitcoin, yet starting in 2020, I began to suggest investing 5% to 25% into bitcoin. Bitcoin's investment thesis seems to have had gotten stronger since 2020.
There might be several reasons why people miss out of bitcoin regardless of the market price and just as it is difficult for an average person to raise $85k to buy one bitcoin, so it was back then even when bitcoin was $1k and even below and that alone makes not not to judge anyone but rather encourage people to buy and hold for much more longer time.
I don't agree with you that buying bitcoin when the price was $1k was difficult just as it is difficult now because someone who was interested in buying bitcoin then would have still considered using the DCA strategy to accumulate just like some of us are applying the DCA strategy now and those people then could have been luckier because they can accumulate up to 1 bitcoin within a short interval of time but currently, except someone who is extremely rich that can accumulate 1 bitcoin in a short period of time otherwise it is not easy to accumulate 1 bitcoin considering the harsh economic conditions we are facing now such that before you even get a discretionary income you must have spent a lot of money on your primary needs.
Yes. We invest according to our budget, and we canot turn back the clock in terms of how many bitcoin we can buy with our budget. Maybe 8-10 years ago, we might have had an income of $30k and we could buy $100 per week of bitcoin with what we had available in our budget, and maybe now our income is more than double, such as $60k per year, and maybe we can buy $200 to $300 per week in bitcoin, yet these days we may well need to invest way more into bitcoin, and we are likely going to get way less bitcoin than what we could have had gotten 8-10 years ago.
We do what we can with what we have, and then see what happens 8-10 years in the future, when perhaps it may well be even more expensive to buy bitcoin with whatever budget that we might have at that time in the future.