Interesting thinking, would that mean that maybe in the next 5 years we will experience a super bull run, followed by what you call Super Bear Cycle?
Not necessarily. I think a super bull run would be probably triggered by some more long-term adoption. Be it companies and states buying it as strategic reserves, or a
more relevant usage as payment tool. This would mean that in this case would not see the Super Bear Cycle, instead after the Super Bull Run the volatility would slowly cool down, but the usage patterns would stabilize.
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I'm curious how much of an impact would usage as an increased payment tool eventually have on bitcoin's value. Because I think an increase in usage as a payment tool is the step after bitcoin broadly became the safe haven for storing value. To have an impact on bitcoin's price, the sender of bitcoin and the receiver of bitcoin would have to remain within the network and not exit it via a payment provider into fiat money. An increase in payments alone wouldn't do much I think, unless it goes hand in hand with all parties staying in bitcoin as then they would have to hold bitcoin in order to be able to transact in bitcoin.
If payments increase because it is made easier to get in and out, the impact would be limited as it would come down to the velocity of fiat - bitcoin - fiat - bitcoin, and I think this the price effect could perhaps be negligible. It has to become a unit of account that people trust and they don't use it only as a payment tool, but then exit the network because of volatility risk.
I assume you are implying that the whole scenario changes when bitcoin becomes more than a bridge, like a basic payment tool where users realize an incentive to have bitcoin at their hands in order to transact at favorable conditions, whether that be speed, price, privacy...