Even experienced users often say something like “There are no smart strategies in gambling, it’s all about chance. Play only for fun, not to win.” These posts look like they were written by artificial intelligence. First, let’s distinguish between casino games, which are entirely based on luck, and sports betting (and betting on non-sports events, such as elections).
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I completely agree with the distinction you made! It is crucial to separate casino games, which are based purely on luck, from sports betting, where strategic analysis can make a huge difference.
In the case of sports betting, in addition to the value betting strategy you mentioned, there are approaches such as arbitrage (taking advantage of discrepancies between bookmakers) and statistical models that consider historical data, team/player performance, and even contextual factors (injuries, weather, etc.). In fact, professional bettors often use algorithms or machine learning to identify patterns that the market underestimates.
In casino games, such as roulette or craps, strategies such as Martingale may seem tempting, but, as you pointed out, the negative mathematical expectation ensures that, in the long term, the risk outweighs any one-off gain. The same goes for systems such as Fibonacci or D’Alembert: they are just ways of managing losses, not guaranteeing profit.
I find it interesting how many people still confuse the two worlds. While in sports betting knowledge and analysis can create real advantages, casinos are designed so that no method can overcome the house edge.