Instead of Chase for the title, I think Manchester City and Aston Villa are both fighting for tickets to the Champions League next season. It is no longer possible for Manchester City to win the Premier League title this season, and neither will Aston Villa. Both teams are both far behind the leaders, so it is reasonable to say that Manchester City and Aston Villa will fight for tickets to next season's Champions League.

Regarding the probability of victory, it feels like Manchester City will be the favorite because they are playing at home. However, Aston Villa really cannot be underestimated considering their performance in the last 5 matches. Aston Villa tends to be consistent in performance compared to Manchester City, but I don't think Manchester City will be willing to lose without fighting for its position in the Champions League zone. This will be an interesting match, it's hard to predict who will win, but I give Pep Guardiola a slight edge as usual.