Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it
by
mcdouglasx
on 22/04/2025, 21:39:17 UTC
I suppose finding two "aa" in 256 is just as likely as finding one "aa" in 256.  After all, hashes don’t "understand" that... lol.

No, but finding one “aa” after you found an “aa” is just as likely as finding “aa” if you didn’t find any “aa”

2 "aa" is about 0.0015/256,  1  "aa" is  about  1/256.

and finding "aa" twice in 256 samples is much rarer than finding just one. But, as you correctly pointed out earlier, hashes themselves don’t "care". each search is statistically fair and unaffected by prior results.

Probability paradoxes, right?

I don’t see the paradox

It's paradoxical, because while I went straight to the point with what I wanted to show, you don’t accept it because the math turned it into an ego race. Your proposal is total distance / simulations.

It's like saying Usain Bolt runs 10 races of 100 meters against Pepe, wins 7, and then concluding that both are equal by adding up 100m x 10 = 1000m. Since both have covered the same distance, both runners must be equal.

That’s magnificently absurd.