I think you guys, especially the non gamblers in this forum, are overestimating how much revenue Duelbits generates. While it is true casinos are always profitable against players in the long run, their profit margin is very thin online. Taking Duelbits for example, for the average gambler who plays a good mix of slots (4% house edge) and table games (0.5%-1% house edge), their overall house edge is probably somewhere around 2%. After all bonuses/rakeback/lossback however, this number is closer to 1%, meaning 1M wagered will produce about 10k profit for Duelbits. If you take a look at the daily and weekly leaderboards on Duelbits, they probably get 10M wagered per week as a very optimistic measure judging by the top 10 in the weekly leaderboard, which falls off very quickly, which means 100k NGR (net gaming revenue). Keep in mind the top wagerers probably play a much higher percentage of table games vs slots, so this is a very optimistic estimate for Duelbits.
Out of this 100k, they have to pay 10k for the weekly lb, 5k x 7 = 35k for the daily lb. That's already 45k gone, leaving 55k left. This is not even accounting for the tournaments that they stopped running recently. Then there's the costs of staffing, providers (which is at least 10-20% of NGR based on stats from other casinos), marketing (streamers, twitter, bitcointalk, etc). Duelbits is barely profitable with the wagers they get and the promotions they run. I would even say they are losing money overall, which is probably why all this is happening. Someone also said Duelbits has not fallen off in terms of deposit numbers and wagers. This is not true. 1-2 years ago they got 5-10 times as much wager weekly. Their top whales all quit the site for some reason early last year, which was the start of the downfall of Duelbits.
I reckon they have been losing money for quite a while (which they can afford to since before last year they have had very profitable years) and were hoping the promotions and tournaments would pick up activity for the site (which didn't happen), but now they are ready to call it quits and cut back on costs.
I think your math needs a closer look, and some of your assumptions don’t fully add up. While I agree that Duelbits has lost players due to their mismanagement—especially under Joao and his team—I’m not convinced their profit margins are as tight as you claim, nor that they’re on the verge of shutting down.
Your estimate of a 1% effective house edge after bonuses/rakeback/lossback might hold for some players, but Duelbits likely pushes high house-edge games like slots (4% as you noted) on most users, especially VIPs like me. I lost $71,338.44 (deposits: $77,962.40, withdrawals: $6,623.96) with no intervention—$4,000+ on January 13, 2025, alone. Their “responsible gambling” is a joke, and I’d bet they bank on heavy losses from players like me to pad their margins. Your 10M weekly wager estimate seems low too; even with a drop from 1-2 years ago, their leaderboards suggest higher volumes when whales were active. At 1% effective edge, that’s $100K NGR as you said, but at a more realistic 2-3% on slots-heavy play, they could be pulling $200K-$300K weekly.
You’re right about costs eating into that—$45K for leaderboards, plus staffing, providers (10-20% of NGR, so $20K-$60K), and marketing (streamers, etc.). But even after $100K-$150K in expenses, they’re likely still clearing profit, especially since they’ve cut tournaments. I don’t buy that they’re losing money overall. They’ve been evasive with me, refusing my full betting history, dodging questions about my alias and denying my $71K refund despite a Curacao court ruling for post-exclusion refunds. This isn’t a struggling casino cutting costs—it’s a predatory one dodging accountability.