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There is another factor that will influence the positions of these teams: the "EPL vs. City" case. The decision has been postponed once again and will probably take place in the summer. But even the weakest punishment (compared to the number of violations committed by City) will mean a deduction of points. This means that City are possibly the clear underdogs in this race. Even a 6-8 point penalty (Everton and Nottingham were penalised this way last season) would put them behind all their rivals.
Damn I suppressed that factor for a while now, but you are of course right.
Do you have a strong source that gave trustworthy estimates as to what Manchester City should expect regarding punishments? It would be important to know if they are going to apply the point deduction penalty retrospectively or if they apply it in the next season. Would make a huge difference at least for the moment.
But I have one more suspicion in this case. Manchester City has a strong lobby, or rather a lot of money and network, and who knows whether the EPL is trying to not punish them such that they miss the CL. They could wait until this season ends and then see how many deducted points Manchester City could swallow without dropping out of the CL and then apply that penalty. It would be obvious, but it would not be the first time that something is obvious under these circumstances. Big clubs have a big say.