In my opinion, Arsenal has seen significant improvement under Mikel Arteta, with a balanced team between attack and defense. Meanwhile, PSG's defense isn't always at its best, especially with absence of Marquinhos or individual errors.
Arsenal has won them once, but doing it again can be a challenge with a key player of that in midfield missing also.
I did a little research into the history of the confrontations between the two teams and found that Arsenal and PSG had previously met on three previous occasions in the European Champions League competition, during which the English team won only once (2-0) in October 2024, while the remaining two confrontations ended in a draw (1-1) and then (2-2), in the group stage of the 2016-2017 edition.
Now, with Mbappé absent, who was PSG's key player, Arsenal's chances of winning are higher, especially if the coach maintains the same strategy based on harmonizing the skills of all players and minimizing mistakes as much as possible. Arsenal is playing at home among its home fans, and this is the most important factor in my opinion.
However, the Parisian team's performance should not be underestimated, even without its well-known stars. Reaching the Champions League semi-finals isn't an easy task, and I can honestly say that PSG deserves it, even though I am not a fan.