Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: What percentage of betting players are long-term winners?
by
viljy
on 30/04/2025, 07:07:01 UTC
I have repeatedly come across the fact that the number and popularity of casinos and bookmakers is growing in the world. But what are the reasons for this?
1. What percentage of betting players are long-term winners?
We have discussed this topic many times, but I still wanted to know the exact numbers, discuss the sources of these numbers and compare these numbers with each other. In addition, it would not hurt to know the details of these studies and the features of these methods.
I want to know what percentage of players in sports betting and on prediction platforms are long-term profitable.
First, I would like to know - are there any authoritative studies on this topic?
Do bookmakers or prediction platforms themselves publish statistics on the percentage of profitable players in relation to all other players? Does this information differ between different sources? Is there a difference in long-term profitable players in bookmakers and on prediction platforms?
I have come across different numbers. Some argue that only 1% of players are profitable in the long term. Others say that less than 1%. Still others claim that the number of such players is 0.01%.

Well, for a casino, you can just figure it out. And in a very primitive way. Using the example of European roulette, this will be about 1/36 * 100% = 2.77%. Knowing the House Advantage (or RTP) of other games, you can calculate the proportion of lucky players in other games. Multiplying the probabilities and multiplying by 100%, we get the share of successful casino gamblers as a whole. However, this is a non-personalized group, since such a calculation is not able to identify the lucky ones who remain profitable for, for example, a decade.

The situation is somewhat different for betting. And to understand the complexity of the calculation, you need to compare betting poker. Unlike gambling, the outcome of which is entirely a "function of luck," the outcome of a poker game largely depends on the skill and experience of the gambler. Experience, which also includes professionalism in the perception and correct interpretation of game factors (for example, the probability of certain combinations). So, in poker, unlike betting, it is quite acceptable for profitable players to exist, since there are many, but limited, factors in the game.

Betting, like poker, is not entirely dependent on luck. There are also incoming factors in betting. But unlike poker, there are almost an infinite number of such factors in betting. Moreover, a large number of them are generally hidden (unlike poker). Like what? One man's wife has slept with another, and the first one will punch the other one in the face right on the football field, of course this will affect the match. Or a slightly sore leg and other events, even thoughts, moods make up a galaxy of incoming factors.

Is there really a person who for decades will be able to take into account a huge variety of incoming factors and be profitable? It's like a professional poker player, elevated to the 99th degree. But why allow improbable explanations for miracles, perhaps this genius just has insider information?

So there are long-term profitable poker players, but the existence of such bettors is very doubtful. They are most likely insiders. Well, then the maximum that can be established is a non-personalized group of profitable bettors. Unlike casinos, this data cannot be found by calculation, statistical data is needed.