Well those on top rely on the intelligence they receive from their think tanks and consultants. There is a complex hierarchy and in the US that structure is infested with corruption.
For example the POTUS asks his "top guys" to give him the options he has for a particular matter. Then they go to the middle management and convey that order. Then the middle management goes to the little guys (the analysts who are the bottom of the food chain receiving peanut salary) to ask them to write that report.
But somewhere along this chain of command, usually in the middle management, the order changes from "give me options I have" to "write a report to prove option X is good". Why? Maybe because option A benefits some oligarch.

For example that option X could be starting a certain armed conflict and the ones behind it who changed the report were the American arms dealers like Northrop Grumman or Lockheed Martin, etc. and starting that war would benefit THEM since they will be selling a lot of weapons and make billions, even if it ends up with US defeat or even complete destruction.

I do. A lot of people, even governments, still don't believe in a lot of facts. Sometimes what they believe in is so ridiculous that it could be categorized as similarly stupid things like "flat earth"! These people need to be hit in the face with the reality to believe it.
Everything that has been happening in the past 3 years is helping them wake the F up