Your method for figuring out if poor strategy is better than no strategy actually works for determining the effectiveness of any strategy versus luck. I saw a thread on if the luck and gambling strategy posts have not been exhausted but I think gamblers are still testing different approach and have more post on luck and gambling to make . So I think your approach to comparing different methods is would help in bringing clarity to that topic.

For instance, you could compare results when:

Guessing based on intuition without a strategy
Or using a specific strategy, like carefully analyzing teams against luck
Then combining luck and strategy

To see the outcomes of each approach, you can determine which one works best. It's a good method for identifying whether luck or strategies or both work better.