Re: Betpanda.io Bounty Hunter Poker League, Big Prizes!, Huge Bounties!!, Discussion
... with the first of the three hands that were a bad beat to say the last. But how it came about is interesting because under usual poker considerations, this hand wouldn't even have made it to the flop.
I think you gave a nice analysis of this hand, but it's an analysis from your perspective. But here's the question, what would you do if you were Gennady?
We can talk/analyze now (after the battle everyone is a general), but with that bankroll (taking into account others), the moment in the tournament, and maybe "just maybe" after many hands with very weak/bad cards maybe I would do the same... I would risk half or my bankroll to see the flop. Since I paid a zillion times to see the flop with all sorts of cards that wouldn't be a strange thing for me. And I guess we can agree with that thing, sometimes the flop give us an edge, many times we just fold.
I understand your logic, I have it too. It's a poker player logic, something like "what would be normal to do at that moment, what would you do", but... but every situation is different, and above everything there's that luck! What ever cards you have flop can be generous or not, turn can make a real mess, and river can turn situation upside down.
Conclusions?
Oh, I have a lot of them, and I laugh at them because they have let me down so many times. What about you?
Hey @iv4n, it is never a call with KJs out of position and the risk that you build a pot others may like and join, too. With 16 BB and an 8 BB raise before it is your turn, it is never a call under any circumstance. It is either all in, which I can understand in that spot, or a fold. Because against an 8 BB raise, how many hands do you beat and what is your position if two more players call when you hold KJ? You are literally calling for flopping the nuts or very high value on the flop. So in a certain sense you want to get it all in anyway and you don't want to get it all in with KJ against four or five players. You want to isolate one player and double up because that puts you at 35+ BB and you are right back again.
Not every situation is different. There is a best move as per the poker player handbook, which is based on position and probabilities. And even if xGennady thinks he has me beat, he still doesn't want others to call with KJ. Maybe he could do it with KQ, but at the end of the day my raise indicates he lost the hand most likely if he doesn't hit the flop whereas I am either holding a pair already, holding an ace or holding KQ. Moves in positions like these is closer to chess and therefore it is not like "every situation is different".
Ask yourself this: if he finds himself in that spot 100 times, what do you think how often he wins the hand if, let's say, I hold 10 10 and instead of isolating me with all in, he builds a pot that two other players might find attractive and call? Not very often, I tell you that. But if he isolates me with KJs against 10 10, he has a very decent chance to get close to 50%. That's the mathematics behind it.
Luck doesn't justify every move. When someone calls my A10 all in with J2 and flops a set of 2s, it doesn't mean it was the right call. I guess you agree. Poker is a game of chance where you have influence considering table position, bet and stack sizes, and sometimes a few individual circumstances like when someone is calling with junk every single hand and you observe that for a while. But assuming I play junk with my 8 BB raise wouldn't end successfully very often
