I’m sure you’re familiar with the words trap or rigged when it comes to games.
Before, I always considered those factors before placing a bet, and it just made my betting journey complicated. The worst part? It didn’t even make me profitable, based on my records.
Now in the playoffs, I’m keeping it cool by just doing my normal analysis, trusting which team is better or if they can cover the spread.
And guess what? I’m in profit so far!
Your thinking makes sense, but does not overthinking work for everyone?
You mentioned that you used to worry about theories like "this is a trap" or "the game is rigged", and that only got in your way, right? I agree that these ideas can be harmful if they are exaggerated, but on the other hand, can't completely ignoring these factors be equally risky? For example, we know that certain betting markets have built-in margins or adjusted odds to favor the bookmakers and not taking this into account can end up being negligent, even if you are winning at the moment.
What I'm trying to say is that there is a fine balance between "overthinking" and "blindly trusting". It seems that you found this balance by simplifying your analysis and focusing only on the basics, like team performance and spreads, but I think this works for you because you already have enough experience to filter out what really matters and then "not overthinking" works well, but for beginners it can be a rip-off.
And be careful how far this can work because the market is constantly changing... what works today may not work tomorrow and relying only on intuition and the basics is not sustainable in the long term.