The problem is you criticize a prediction model without having the parameters, so of course you'll get to the wrong conclusions.
The fact is it's you who made wrong conclusions

I did not, we went for a risk / reward play based on the info we had. I don’t think it’s that hard to understand.
You know, if he actually hit it while competing with you it would make sense. This is unnecessary comments. While it's one thing to have our 2 favourite thread fillers arguing each other for... so many pages they both were doing their thing. But these you were wrong comments don't seem to do anything but try to get a rise out of the receiver. Regardless of the outcome, chances are chances and sometimes the smallest chance is enough. Move on... Like Bram is trying to do. He still came out on top... by miles.